[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN A RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE SW
NORTH ATLC NEAR 31N67W AND A LOWER PRESSURE AREA ANALYZED ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA. AS A RESULT...NEAR GALE TO GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 74W-77W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO RELAX SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
02N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
02N21W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 23W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 19W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE GULF BASIN
WITH AXIS FROM OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 18N95W TO 31N88W. TO
THE WEST OF THE AXIS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES WITH VERY
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHING NOTED OVER EASTERN TEXAS. THE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INLAND SE TEXAS TO THE RIO GRANDE NEAR
28N100W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
AND BECOMES DIFFUSE BY LATE SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS INFLUENCED BY UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM OVER CENTRAL CUBA TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
WESTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 11N87W. THE MAJORITY OF THIS FLOW REMAINS
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE ALOFT WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS HOWEVER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...HISPANIOLA...AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE EVENING WHERE CLOUDINESS IS ENHANCED
SLIGHTLY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE.

...HISPANIOLA...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND CURRENTLY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT. GIVEN INCREASED DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WITH FAIRLY BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE
ATLC...THE BASIN IS LARGELY INFLUENCED BY A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N67W
AND A STRONGER 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR
35N29W. THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AND
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF
THE SE CONUS COAST INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS SATURDAY
MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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