[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101025
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM
10.5N-13N BETWEEN 74W-76.5W. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
EXISTS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER N COLOMBIA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY 1500 UTC TODAY. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W TO 0N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 0N22W TO
2S30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4S39W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-4S BETWEEN 6W-27W...AND FROM 2N-
5S BETWEEN 29W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

5-15 KT E TO SE RETURN FLOW IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS 15-20 KT NE WINDS. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N
BETWEEN 79W-82W MOVING W. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 89W-91W. THE
LATEST GOES-R IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY FOG OR LOW
STRATUS CONDITIONS S OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 28N-31N
BETWEEN 83W-87W. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TEXAS
COAST AND NE MEXICO COAST N OF 20N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 90W.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MEXICO...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXCEPT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...S FLORIDA...AND THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT THAT IS
PRESENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO EXTEND FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SEE
ABOVE. 10-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH
WEAKEST WINDS ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 74W-
77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND E PANAMA...MOVING W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF
80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND
CUBA. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ONE LARGE 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 35N33W PRODUCING 10-15 KT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW FROM 20N-
30N BETWEEN 20W-80W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 23N BETWEEN 70W-80W. A
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EASTERN ATLANTIC
N OF 23N BETWEEN 20W-50W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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