[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100509
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO SHORTLY AT 0600 UTC TONIGHT ALONG
THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W. A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER N
COLOMBIA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY 1800 UTC
THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 2N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N16W TO
1S30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4S38W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 7W-13W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-
3S BETWEEN 16W-25W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 0N-3S BETWEEN 37W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

5-15 KT E TO SE RETURN FLOW IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS 15-20 KT NE WINDS. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N
BETWEEN 79W-82W MOVING W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 89W-91W.
THE LATEST GOES-R IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY FOG OR
LOW STRATUS CONDITIONS S OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 28N-31N
BETWEEN 83W-87W. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TEXAS
COAST AND NE MEXICO COAST N OF 23N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 90W.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MEXICO...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXCEPT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...S FLORIDA...AND THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT THAT IS
PRESENTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS TO EXTEND FROM S ALABAMA TO HOUSTON
TEXAS WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO SHORTLY AT 0600 UTC TONIGHT ALONG
THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. 10-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH WEAKEST WINDS ALONG THE S
COAST OF CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA FROM
21N-23N BETWEEN 81W-82W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N
COLOMBIA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 74W-76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...E CUBA AND E
PANAMA...MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE
OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO INCREASED
INSTABILITY.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ONE LARGE 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 34N38W PRODUCING 10-15 KT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW FROM 20N-
30N BETWEEN 20W-80W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 23N BETWEEN 70W-80W. A
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EASTERN ATLANTIC
N OF 23N BETWEEN 20W-50W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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