[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM 23W TO 28W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N
BETWEEN 06W-11W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN 40W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A COUPLE OF WEAK
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...ONE
LOCATED OVER THE NE GULF WATERS NEAR 29N86W AND THE OTHER OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 27N98W. THE PARENT TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE NE CONUS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W SW TO 30N88W WHERE THE FRONT
BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. GIVEN
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND FAVORABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN NW OF A LINE FROM THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR TUXPAN. OTHERWISE...
GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND BECOMES DIFFUSE BY
EARLY SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...SE RETURN FLOW WILL FULLY ESTABLISH
ITSELF ACROSS THE BASIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS INFLUENCED BY UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED WELL
SOUTH OF CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 04N91W. THE MAJORITY OF THIS FLOW
REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE ALOFT WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS HOWEVER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS COASTAL WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA WHERE
CLOUDINESS IS ENHANCED SLIGHTLY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITHIN MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

...HISPANIOLA...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND CURRENTLY AS WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT. GIVEN INCREASED DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
NE CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE MID-ATLC
COAST TO LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. WHILE THE FRONT REMAINS WEST OF THE SW NORTH ATLC
REGION AT THIS TIME...PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM 36N70W TO 31N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER TO THE
W-SW OF THAT LINE MOVING OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
COASTAL GEORGIA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC
IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 30N50W TO THE NW
BAHAMAS NEAR 27N79W. FARTHER EAST...WHILE THE RIDGING HOLDS IN
PLACE...A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.  THE FIRST IS FROM 22N54W TO
25N54W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS...AND THE SECOND IS FROM 21N64W TO 25N64W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN
60W-66W. THIS AREA IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED IN THE VICINITY NEAR 27N63W. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED
WEST OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 39N14W SW TO 30N30W TO THE
1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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