[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091025
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W TO 0N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 0N18W TO 2S23W TO
2S33W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4S39W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-3S BETWEEN 8W-20W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-3S BETWEEN 20W-25W...AND FROM 2S-
5S BETWEEN 26W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

5-15 KT E TO SE RETURN FLOW IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS 15-20 KT NE WINDS. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 24N-25N
BETWEEN 81W-82W MOVING W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO...S TEXAS AND NE MEXICO FROM 24N-29N
BETWEEN 95W-100W. THE LATEST GOES-R IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY
SHOWS PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS CONDITIONS S OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 83W-87W. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TEXAS COAST AND NE MEXICO COAST N OF
TAMPICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO AND
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MEXICO...AND
OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E GULF.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SURFACE RETURN FLOW
WITH MORE SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO
BE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...CUBA AND E PANAMA
MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE OVER
JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE BAHAMAS EXTENDS FROM 28N72W TO 23N74W.
1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N36W.
A 1018 MB LOW IS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 37N12W. OF NOTE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF
55W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 20N-
30N BETWEEN 35W-55W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 20N-
30N E OF 35W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO MOVE SLOWLY W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA

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