[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N11W TO 1N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 1N15W TO 3S26W TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5S36W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 1W-11W...AND FROM 4N-4S BETWEEN
11W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6S BETWEEN 21W-
36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

5-15 KT E TO SE RETURN FLOW IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS 15-20 KT NE WINDS. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MOVING W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
S TEXAS AND NE MEXICO FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 97W-103W. THE LATEST
GOES-R IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS
CONDITIONS S OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 29N-30N BETWEEN 83W-
86W. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TEXAS COAST. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO AND THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MEXICO...AND OVER THE
W GULF W OF 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E GULF. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SURFACE RETURN FLOW WITH
MORE SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A SMALL AREA OF ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN
76W-77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA.
EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE BAHAMAS EXTENDS FROM 29N71W TO 24N72W.
1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 38N36W.
A 1017 MB LOW IS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 37N12W. OF NOTE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF
55W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 20N-
30N BETWEEN 35W-55W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 20N-
30N E OF 35W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO MOVE SLOWLY W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA

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