[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082317
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W ALONG 4N13W TO 3N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 1N20W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N
TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA BETWEEN 4W-18W AND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN
14W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE W GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN TO OVER SE CONUS ACROSS LOUISIANA. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE E GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO A 1021 MB HIGH IN THE NE GULF
NEAR 28N87W CONTINUING TO THE W GULF NEAR 27N95W. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE W GULF AND
COUPLED WITH THE S TO SE SURFACE FLOW ARE GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NW OF A LINE FROM
27N88W TO 21N9W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH
FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE DEEP
TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO JAMAICA. SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
THUS DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER CUBA E OF 83W.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED INLAND OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA.
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ARE BANKING SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND
WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF
NICARAGUA AND W OF 81W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS THE W AND E CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLAND AGAIN THIS EVENING. THE INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT PRODUCING WIDE SPREAD
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH
NEAR 31N75W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE W ATLC WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 31N67W TO 25N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB
HIGH W OF THE AZORES. W ATLC SURFACE WILL WEAKEN AS MOVES W AND
DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NW ATLC
ON THU BEFORE SHIFTING S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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