[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED APR 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W DUE TO STRONG SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC EXTENDING
TO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER COLOMBIA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 07N11W TO 04N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N15W TO 01S26W
TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 01S45W. A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS IS FROM 03N TO 06N
E OF 17W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04S TO 03N
BETWEEN 19W AND 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
...THUS PROVIDING RETURN WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE
BASIN...EXCEPT THE SW GULF WHERE WINDS INCREASE UP TO 20 KT.
HIGHER WINDS IN THE SW GULF ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM 25N93W TO 17N94W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75
NM W OF ITS AXIS. MAINLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES
ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH DRY AIR...THUS FAVORING FAIR
WEATHER. OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 92W FOG IS BEING
REPORTED...COINCIDING WITH LOW TO MEDIUM FOG PROBABILITIES IN
THE GOES-13 IFR PRODUCT. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE
THROUGH THU ALONG WITH FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY MORNING...STALLING ON NORTHERN
GULF WATERS SATURDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO THE EPAC WATERS
WHILE RIDGING PROVIDES SW TO W FLOW TO THE REMAINDER BASIN.
HOWEVER...AT THE MIDDLE LEVELS...A RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
SW TO THE EASTERN BASIN TO A BASE OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA. SSMI
TPW IMAGERY CONTINUE SHOW PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS THE BASIN...WHICH ALONG WITH LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE
UPPER TROUGHING ENHANCES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 84W...EASTERN
HISPANIOLA...THE MONA PASSAGE...PUERTO RICO AND THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. SIMILAR SHOWERS ACTIVITY IS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
ENHANCED BY A LOW PRESSURE INLAND. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC EXTENDING TO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
COLOMBIA SUPPORT GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE SW BASIN. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION. OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 69W AND
79W...TRADES OF 20 KT DOMINATE INCREASING UP TO 30 KT S OF 14N.
TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN ISLAND ENHANCING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDING TO ADJACENT
WATERS...INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE. ANOTHER SHALLOW AIR MASS IS
MOVING OVER SW COASTAL WATERS ENHANCING SHOWERS. STABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT PROVIDED BY RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N66W TO 25N70W WITH ONLY ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALSO EXISTS NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 38W AND 51W ASSOCIATED
WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC.
ELSEWHERE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN AS WELL AS FAIR WEATHER. THE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE
WESTWARD THROUGH THU MORNING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE
AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ELSEWHERE SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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