[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 0600 UTC FRIDAY MORNING
FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W DUE TO A STRONG SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC EXTENDING
TO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 8N13W TO 01N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF
THE EQUATOR NEAR 20W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 03S40W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03S TO 04N BETWEEN 10W AND
21W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03S TO 03N BETWEEN 21W
AND 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

ATLC RIDGING EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN
AXIS ACROSS N FLORIDA AND THE N GULF COAST. THIS IS PRODUCING
MAINLY SE FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 5 TO
10 KT OVER THE NE BASIN AND 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FL STRAITS
AND KEYS...AND SOME SPRINKLES UNDERNEATH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD CANOPY OVER THE NW GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO AND THE SW AND CENTRAL GULF
WITH A NARROW TROUGH AXIS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND FL STRAITS. THIS
IS PRODUCING PRIMARILY NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GULF. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN
GULF FROM TEXAS TO ALABAMA ON FRIDAY WITH CONVECTION. THE FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION
WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF DURING THE WEEKEND TIME
PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TRADE WINDS PRIMARILY BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KT COVER THE CARIBBEAN
WITH A LOCALIZED AREA OF 30 KT N OF THE COLOMBIA COAST TO 13N.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN
WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE N OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. PATCHES OF SHOWERS
ARE N OF 15N ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE N OF 15 N W OF 75W IN THE VICINITY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS TO HONDURAS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. OTHER
THAN THE INCREASING TRADE WIND FLOW...SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE ATLC IN THE FORM OF
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N69W TO 25N76W. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. A LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH SW OF
THE AZORES DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WITH GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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