[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072328
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE APR 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG
THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA AND
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE W ATLC. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N11W TO 3N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
1N16W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 19W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 13W-19W AND FROM 2N
TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 19W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER MEXICO AND THE FAR W GULF OF
MEXICO ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AGAIN THIS
EVENING AND COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE
GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WELL N OF THE GULF
WATERS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND
OVER THE W COAST OF FLORIDA AND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE N GULF COAST TO
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN MODERATE E
TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL NW FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING.
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND THUS DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN WHERE UPPER MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE BASIN
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AGAIN DEVELOPED INLAND OVER PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA. E SURFACE
WINDS ARE SHIFTING THE SHOWERS INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE
MONA PASSAGE. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ARE BANKING SHOWERS
INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA S OF NICARAGUA AND W OF 81W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO MINIMAL
GALE FORCE TONIGHT. FRESH TRADES ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND WILL INCREASE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS BY MID
WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS THE W AND E
CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
INCREASING AND IS ALREADY PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
THIS SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB
HIGH NW OF THE AZORES AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS SW ALONG 32N70W
TO OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL STATES. A LINGERING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 28N67W TO 22N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 28N E
OF 30W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR
32N12W THEN JUST E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 28N14W TO 23N26W.
THE W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES NEAR 71W
EARLY ON WED THEN DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS WED
NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP E AND W ALONG 31N ON THU
EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO NE FLORIDA ON FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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