[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071725
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W DUE TO THE STRONG SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC EXTENDING
TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER WESTERN COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 05N09W TO 03N11W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N11W TO THE
EQUATOR ALONG 20W TO 01S33W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
03S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 200
NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 15W AND 30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 140 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 16W AND 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THUS PROVIDING RETURN WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS
THE BASIN. A WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE RIDGE ON THE SW GULF IS
BEING ANALYZED AS A TROUGH FROM 23N93W TO 17N94W WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM W OF ITS AXIS. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL
DRY AIR...THUS PROVIDING STABILITY AND SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER.
OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 93W FOG IS BEING REPORTED
...COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM FOG PROBABILITIES DEPICTED BY THE GOES-
13 IFR. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS AS WELL AS FAIR WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MAINLY FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ACROSS THE REGION BEING SUPPORTED
BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. HOWEVER...SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF SHALLOW
MOIST AIR MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WHICH ALONG WITH
LIFTING PROVIDED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH ENHANCES ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA. STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC EXTENDING TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN COLOMBIA SUPPORT
GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE SW BASIN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION.
TRADES OF 20 KT ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH 15 KT
DOMINATING ELSEWHERE.

HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND ENHANCING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT PROVIDED
BY RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
CONVECTION. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS SHALLOW MOIST AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N64W TO 22N68W WITH ONLY ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ALSO EXISTS NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST.  ELSEWHERE
...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN AS
WELL AS FAIR WEATHER. THE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  THE AREA OF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY CONTINUE
FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO BEFORE DISSIPATING.  ELSEWHERE SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR/CL


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