[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071026
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE APR 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W DUE TO THE STRONG SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 1006 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA AND
THE HIGHER PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE W ATLC. GALE CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST MORE THAN 24 HOURS UNTIL 1200 UTC WED.
PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 6N10W TO 3N11W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N11W TO 4S30W TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6S35W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-3S BETWEEN 13W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

10-15 KT SE RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
MOVING W. THE LATEST GOES-R IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY SHOWS FOG
AND LOW STRATUS CONDITIONS S OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 27N-
31N BETWEEN 84W-88W. PATCHY THICK FOG IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF
TEXAS AND NE MEXICO FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 94W-99W. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
85W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SURFACE RETURN FLOW WITH
MORE SHOWERS OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. 10-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH WEAKEST WINDS JUST S OF CUBA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLAND...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND E HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 3N-8N
BETWEEN 75W-78W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE...WHILE SW FLOW IS OVER
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS TO TRAVERSE THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE TRADEWINDS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE TRADEWINDS. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH N OF PUERTO RICO EXTENDS FROM 27N65W TO 20N67W.
THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 50W-60W. A
1008 MB LOW IS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 35N17W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS S TO 33N14W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 28N17W TO 26N23W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 60W.
ZONAL FLOW IS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 25W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 35N18W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE SLOWLY W WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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