[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080514
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT AT 0600 UTC UNTIL
1200 UTC ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 12.5N
BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. THE GALE IS DUE TO A STRONG SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 1006 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA AND
THE HIGHER PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE W ATLC. PLEASE SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N11W TO 2N13W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N13W TO 3S30W TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6S35W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 12W-20W...FROM 5N-6S BETWEEN
20W-26W...AND FROM 1N-3S BETWEEN 30W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

10-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS 20-25 KT NE WINDS. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MOVING W. THE
LATEST GOES-R IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY SHOWS FOG AND LOW STRATUS
CONDITIONS S OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 84W-
87W. PATCHY THICK FOG IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS AND NE
MEXICO FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 93W-99W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS
ALONG 104W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF E OF 90W. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MEXICO...AND OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SURFACE RETURN FLOW
WITH MORE SHOWERS OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT SHORTLY ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS OF COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. 10-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH WEAKEST WINDS JUST S OF CUBA. A
SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA FROM
20N-21N BETWEEN 76W-79W. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN
73W-78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND W HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO TRAVERSE THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE TRADEWINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER SW HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE TRADEWINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE BAHAMAS EXTENDS FROM 29N68W TO 22N69W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH. THE REMNANTS
OF AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 47W-51W. A 1011 MB LOW IS
N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 35N16W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S
FROM THE LOW TO 34N10W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 28N13W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH. OF NOTE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 60W.
ZONAL FLOW IS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 25W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 37N16W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE SLOWLY W WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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