[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040518
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH AXIS NEAR
20N39W TO 01N42W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MOIST AREA IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS W OF THE WAVE
AXIS E OF 40W...BETWEEN 11-15N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS AT AROUND 130 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N58W TO 09N59W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA
IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 57W-61W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
21N69W TO 12N70W MOVING W AT 10 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
WAVE...NOT AS HIGH AS THE PREVIOUS TWO WAVES DISCUSSED ABOVE. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 24N83W TO 13N84W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 82W-86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
10N23W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N23W TO 08N37W. BESIDES THE
CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 17W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

DOLLY HAS DISSIPATED INLAND OVER MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF HAS SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 30N.
10-15 KT SE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE GULF
OF HONDURAS. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER W
CUBA IS ENHANCING THE ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS MAINLY NEAR NW
CUBA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ALONG
THE AND WITHIN 100 NM OF THE MEXICO/TX COAST NORTH OF 25 N
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE GULF AS A TROPICAL WAVE
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH IN THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER CARIBBEAN...ONE OVER DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND THE OTHER EXITING W CUBA. NO OTHER CONVECTION IS
NOTED OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS
AND IS PRODUCING CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH CENTER NEAR 11N66W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND A TROPICAL WAVE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS LESSER ANTILLES AS THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES ENTERS THE BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...

ALTHOUGH A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE ISLAND...THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IS LIMITING CONVECTION.
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A HUMID
AIRMASS APPROACHES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 MB HIGH CONTINUES OVER THE WEATHER HALF OF THE ATLANTIC
BASIN MAINLY W OF 48W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NORTH OF 30N WITH
CENTER NEAR 32N67W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS NEXT TO IT...WITH
CENTER NEAR 33N59W. THE NORTHEASTERN EXTENSION OF AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 22N-24N MAINLY W OF
78W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RIVERA


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