[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041024
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH AXIS NEAR
19N41W TO 05N44W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MOIST AREA IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS W OF THE WAVE
AXIS E OF 40W...BETWEEN 11-15N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 22N60W TO 12N61W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF
THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 59W-
63W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
24N71W TO 13N72W MOVING W AT 10 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
WAVE...NOT AS HIGH AS THE PREVIOUS TWO WAVES DISCUSSED ABOVE. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER WESTERN CUBA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
24N84W TO 14N85W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 13N-23N BETWEEN 80W-86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO
09N30W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N30W TO 10N40W. BESIDES THE
CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 17W-
21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY CONTINUE OVER MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS
KEEPING THE MEXICAN COAST AND SW GULF WATERS QUITE ACTIVE THIS
MORNING...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION W OF
94W...BETWEEN 18N-24N. THE GULF HAS SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE
ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 28N. 10-15 KT SE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS
THE BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER W CUBA IS ENHANCING THE ENVIRONMENT TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE SE
GULF WATERS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE MEXICO/TX COAST N OF 25N ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF DOLLY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE GULF AS A TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH IN THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER CARIBBEAN...ONE OVER HAITI AND THE
OTHER EXITING W CUBA. THERE IS ANOTHER WAVE MAKING ITS ENTRANCE
TO THE CARIBBEAN GENERATING MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 59W-63W. NO OTHER
CONVECTION IS NOTED OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES. THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE GULF
OF HONDURAS AND IS PRODUCING CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PREVAILS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH CENTER NEAR 12N67W. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE VICINITY OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND A TROPICAL WAVE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS LESSER ANTILLES AS THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ENTERS THE BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...

ALTHOUGH A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE ISLAND...THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IS LIMITING CONVECTION.
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A HUMID
AIRMASS APPROACHES WITH THE PROXIMITY OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 MB HIGH CONTINUES OVER THE WEATHER HALF OF THE
ATLANTIC...WITH CENTER NEAR 32N68W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF
30N WITH CENTER NEAR 32N68W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS NEXT TO
IT...WITH CENTER NEAR 34N61W. THE NORTHEASTERN EXTENSION OF AN
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 22N-32N MAINLY W OF
74W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RIVERA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net