[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 040005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 6N TO 19N BETWEEN 30W AND
41W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE
RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W FROM 21N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 23N54W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 15N54W AND 10N57W. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N51W 18N56W 15N60W 10N60W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W FROM 21N
SOUTHWARD...CUTTING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE
IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND IN NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF
HAITI...ACROSS THE BORDER WITH NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
BETWEEN 64W AND 74W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W FROM 24N IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20
KNOTS...THROUGH THE AREA OF THE 32N67W-30N74W-19N82W-HONDURAS
AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... IT IS NOT EASY TO DISCERN WHICH OF
THE FEATURES BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE TROPICAL WAVE IS HELPING
TO PRODUCE THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE AREA. NUMEROUS
STRONG IN CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA TO
NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...EL SALVADOR...AND HONDURAS...SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA...AND NEIGHBORING SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TO THE EAST OF
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 6N37W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N37W TO
5N40W 8N46W 10N56W 10N62W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W AND 18W...AND FROM 8N TO 9N
BETWEEN 21W AND 22W...AND FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 48W AND 56W.
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 43W AND 49W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS FROM 90W EASTWARD...RELATED TO THE
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 32N67W-TO HONDURAS
AND NICARAGUA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 90W WESTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO A 1020 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N40W...TO A 1023 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N58W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N66W...TO 33N77W...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S.A. TO TEXAS NEAR 31N97W...AND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE SITES.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN MCALLEN TEXAS IN
THE LOWER VALLEY. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING OBSERVED IN
LAFAYETTE AND NEW IBERIA IN LOUISIANA...AND IN ALABAMA NEAR GULF
SHORES. RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN FLORIDA...IN THE
PENSACOLA METROPOLITAN AREA...IN BROOKSVILLE...IN THE TAMPA-
SAINT PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES
INCLUDING IN SARASOTA...TALLAHASSEE IS OBSERVING LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET
FROM 20N TO 26N TO THE WEST OF 96W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST TO THE WEST OF
BERMUDA...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...ACROSS FLORIDA...AND INCLUDING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM A
32N67W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 30N74W...TO A 19N82W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO HONDURAS AND NORTHERN
NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN
73W AND 78W. SCATTERED STRONG ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL
SECTIONS OF CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 77W AND 83W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AWAY FROM THE 19N82W TO HONDURAS/
NICARAGUA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
03/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.84 IN
MONTERREY IN MEXICO...0.46W IN TRINIDAD...AND 0.14 IN CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N76W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 8N82W IN
PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN PANAMA AND IN COSTA RICA
BETWEEN 80W AND 86W...IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 10N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN THE BORDER WITH VENEZUELA AND 76W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS...FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION...COVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD FROM 74W WESTWARD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM
11.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W.

...HISPANIOLA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W FROM 21N
SOUTHWARD...CUTTING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE
IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND IN NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF
HAITI...ACROSS THE BORDER WITH NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
BETWEEN 64W AND 74W.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB AND FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE AT THE SOUTHERN END OF AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 26N NORTHWARD BETWEEN FROM 60W EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE
NORTH OF 25N57W 27N30W BEYOND 32N18W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO A 1020 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N40W...TO A 1023 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N58W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N66W...TO 33N77W...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S.A. TO TEXAS NEAR 31N97W...AND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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