[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031732
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

DOLLY WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIS MORNING AT 7
AM CDT AND THE LAST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM AT 10 AM CDT. THE FINAL POSITION
OF THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY WAS NEAR 21.7N 99.2W. SEE THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON DOLLY. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005
MB. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25KT EXTEND FROM THE
MEXICO/TX BORDER EAST INTO THE GULF TO AROUND 92W. THE SYSTEM
HAS ALREADY PRODUCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH THE HIGHEST REPORTED
TOTAL OF 4 INCHES...OR 99.3 MM...REPORTED AT TUXPAN MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH DOLLY IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ITS REMNANTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON...AS WELL AS NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND
EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL BETWEEN 7 AND 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 20 INCHES. THIS ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. PRESENTLY...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE MEXICAN AND S TEXAS COASTS FROM 18N-28N BETWEEN 95W AND
100W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 20N35W
TO 6N36W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MOIST AREA FROM 6-14N E OF 41W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N56W TO 11N57W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA FROM 8N-22N
BETWEEN 53W-62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150NM OF THE WAVE
AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
21N68W TO 11N70W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 74W-
79W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED S OF 15N BETWEEN
68W-73W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 23N80W TO 12N82W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200NM OF THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS LOCATED FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 78W-84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
7N30W TO 5N37W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N37W TO 10N55W AND THEN
FROM 10N58W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N62W. BESIDES
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OFF THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 15W-21W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 23W-
34W AND BETWEEN 45W-54W AND FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 58W-62W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

DOLLY HAS DISSIPATED INLAND OVER MEXICO. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE
SECTION ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS SURFACE RIDGING
FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 32N. 10-15 KT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS COVERS THE GULF NE OF THE SPECIAL
FEATURE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING UNDER THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS HELPING TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF N
OF 27N AND EAST OF 93W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT CONVECTION
TO CONTINUE ALONG THE AND WITHIN 100 NM OF THE MEXICO/TX COAST
NORTH OF 25 N ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE GULF WITH
AN WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE AND AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN
THE AREA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONGOING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE
THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. NO OTHER CONVECTION IS NOTED
OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES AND ITCZ. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS
AND IS PRODUCING CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
NEAR 13N64W IS PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WINDWARD AND
LEEWARD ISLANDS AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE AREA.

...HISPANIOLA...

ALTHOUGH A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE AREA...THE
PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IS LIMITING CONVECTION TODAY. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OCCURRING OVER THE AREA. FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BEYOND 24 HOURS AS A MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 32N BETWEEN 54W-
63W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 26N40W. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 30W-50W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS HELPING TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N TO 33N
BETWEEN 35W AND 50W. THE NORTHEASTERN EXTENSION OF AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 74W-
80W AND ACROSS S FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA/LATTO


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