[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031038
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AT 03/09 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS MOVING OVER
EASTERN MEXICO NEAR 21.8N 98.4W...MOVING WNW AT 07 KT. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35
KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON...AS WELL AS
NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE MEXICAN COAST FROM 20N-27N...W OF
95W. SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N34W TO 10N35W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT 15 KT.
SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. THERE IS ALSO A STRONG
DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THE REGION WHICH IS LIMITING THE AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING WITH THIS WAVE JUST S OF
14N...BETWEEN 30W-37W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N53W TO 10N54W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. ALTHOUGH
SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE...A STRONG DEEP LAYER
WIND SHEAR IS ALSO AFFECTING THIS WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING S OF 16N...BETWEEN 52W-55W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS MOVING ACROSS
THE MONA PASSAGE...EXTENDING FROM 21N67W TO 12N69W MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 19N...BETWEEN 64W-70W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS MOVING
OVER EASTERN CUBA...EXTENDING FROM 23N79W TO 14N80W MOVING W AT
15 KT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS OVER
NORTHERN CUBA N OF 22N...BETWEEN 76W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG 20N BETWEEN 74W-84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO
11N27W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N37W TO 08N54W. BESIDES THE
CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BOUNDARY
NEAR WESTERN AFRICA COAST FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 16W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS LOCATED OVER INLAND MEXICO. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH
AXIS ALONG 30N. 10-15 KT SE SURFACE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF 94W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 83W-85W.
AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW
GULF NEAR 27N93W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. EXPECT
DOLLY TO CONTINUE MOVING INLAND WHILE WEAKENING. THE TROPICAL
WAVE MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION WILL CONTINUE
ENHANCING THE ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAY HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF STATES FROM LA TO FL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COUPLE TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
INFORMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA AND EXTENDING TO COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...MAINLY S OF
12N. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW CONTINUES ANCHORED
OVER THE BAHAMAS WITH CENTER NEAR 23N78W. THIS SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 12N62W...PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERNS
COMBINED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES PRESENT IN THE AREA ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS CUBA AND THE
COASTAL WATER OF HISPANIOLA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND A NEW TROPICAL WAVE MOVING W INTO THE AREA.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY ALONG 70W.  FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND TODAY...BRINGING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N60W. AT
UPPER LEVELS...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN CUBA NEAR 23N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG 77W BETWEEN 22N-29N.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG 28N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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