[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED SEP 3 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AT 03/03 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS MOVING OVER
THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 21.9N 97.7W...MOVING WNW AT 08 KT.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KT. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO
LEON...AS WELL AS NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI
MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE MEXICAN COAST FROM 20N-
27N...W OF 95W. SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N32W TO 09N34W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT 15 KT.
SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. THERE IS ALSO A STRONG
DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THE REGION WHICH IS LIMITING THE AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING WITH THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N49W TO 09N53W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. ALTHOUGH
SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE...A STRONG DEEP LAYER
WIND SHEAR IS ALSO AFFECTING THIS WAVE. WITH THIS...NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS PRESENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...EXTENDING FROM 20N66W TO
10N67W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS
WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 64W-68W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE COAST OF VENEZUELA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS MOVING
OVER EASTERN CUBA...EXTENDING FROM 22N74W TO 10N76W MOVING W AT
15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 21N-23N
BETWEEN 76W-78W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
06N34W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N34W TO 11N52W. BESIDES THE
CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS LOCATED OVER W GULF OF MEXICO. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH
AXIS ALONG 30N. 10-15 KT SE SURFACE WINDS COVERS THE GULF NE OF
THE SPECIAL FEATURE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 83W-85W. AT UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR
25N97W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. EXPECT DOLLY TO
MAKE LANDFALL THIS MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A
TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION MAY HELP
PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CUBA AND THE FLORIDA
STRAITS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAY HELP
PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH GULF STATES
FROM LA TO FL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COUPLE TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
INFORMATION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA AND EXTENDING TO COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...MAINLY S OF
11N. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW CONTINUES ANCHORED
OVER THE BAHAMAS WITH CENTER NEAR 25N77W. THIS SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WINWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 13N61W...PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERNS COMBINED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVES PRESENT IN THE AREA ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS CUBA...NORTHERN HISPANIOLA AND THE
COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE VICINITY OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING W INTO THE AREA.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...MAINLY ALONG 70W.  FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N60W. A 1019
MB HIGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 28N41W. AT UPPER
LEVELS...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-29N
BETWEEN 63W-78W. ELSEWHERE...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
PRESENT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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