[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N49W
TO 8N50W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN
AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 8N TO 16N BETWEEN 46W AND 55W.

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM
16N59W TO 9N60W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED
IN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. UP TO 35 KT OF WIND SHEAR IS
AFFECTING THE WAVE WITH A SMALL UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST WEST OF
THE WAVE NEAR 14N61W. THE INTERACTION OF THE WAVE WITH THE UPPER
LOW IS HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION IN THE AREA. NUMEROUS
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N TO 16N
BETWEEN 55W AND 62W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N17W AND CONTINUES TO 11N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N30W TO 7N43W TO 8N53W. OTHER THAN
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 26W AND 48W ALONG
THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N TO 12N
BETWEEN 15W TO 19W...TO THE SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA...NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A 1019
MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED NEAR 28N92W COVERS THE
GULF WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH IS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE W ATLANTIC WHILE THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT ACROSS THE REGION. DRY AIR WILL
MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER OVER THE BASIN THROUGH MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS S ACROSS CUBA INTO THE
W CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM 20N76W TO
19N80 WITH A DECAYING COLD FRONT FROM 18N80W TO A 1007 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 16N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 14N TO 18N
BETWEEN 79W AND 83W.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN N OF PANAMA TO 12N...W OF 81W. THIS ACTIVITY IS
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST EXTENSION OF THE PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH...FORMERLY A
TROPICAL WAVE...EXTENDS FROM 18N76W TO 12N76W. RELATIVELY DRY
AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH IS LIMITING CONVECTION WITH
THIS TROUGH AND ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE WINWARD
ISLANDS AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH CONVECTION.
THE LOW IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT W WITH CONVECTION. THE
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY SE. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT.

HISPANIOLA...
THE COLD FRONT TO THE NE OF HISPANIOLA IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS HAITI WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST OFFSHORE THE NE
COAST OF HAITI. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES HAITI. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH
TUESDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
FROM 31N63W ACROSS THE S BAHAMAS TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR
20N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE
FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM NW OF THE FRONT. N TO
NE WINDS UP TO 20 KT ARE TO THE NE THE FRONT WITH SW WINDS UP TO
20 KT SE OF THE FRONT TO 60W. EAST OF 60W...A 1020 MB SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N40W DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER. A WEAK 1015 MB SURFACE LOW
NEAR 28N27W IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WITHIN 100 NM OF
THE LOW CENTER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
EAST TO NEAR 30N60W TO JUST OFFSHORE OF HAITI WITH CONVECTION.
THE FRONT WILL THEN DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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