[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261143
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
NONE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N47W
TO 8N48W MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 43W-51W.

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM
15N56W TO 9N58W MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 12N55W 12N58W TO 11N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
OF LINE FROM 15N50W TO 14N58W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE AND WAS
DROPPED FROM THE 26/0600 UTC ANALYSIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES TO 10N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N27W 6N40W 8N53W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
8N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-
10N BETWEEN 13W-17W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 23W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN/CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDS
ACROSS THE YUCATAN INTO THE S GULF/E BAY OF CAMPECHE THEN N-NW
TO OVER E TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE W ATLC COVERS THE FAR E GULF E OF 85W. A SURFACE RIDGE
IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH OFF THE
TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N93W. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E TODAY REACHING THE
FAR NE GULF TONIGHT THEN WILL WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 26/0900 UTC EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA
NEAR 20N76W ALONG 19N81W TO A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 16N82W. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60
NM W OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER HONDURAS
ENHANCING THE ABOVE ACTIVITY AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS E-NE
INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC AND NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-16N
BETWEEN 81W-84W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N75W ALONG 14N75W TO THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W. MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W ALONG 10N78W TO OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
NEAR 9N82W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S
OF 10N ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE
AIR COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 73W LEAVING THAT
AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MONRING. THE LOW WILL MEANDER
TONIGHT THEN MOVE W ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON MON AND TUE
DRAGGING THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT W ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN.
THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON TUE
NIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL ENTER THE E
CARIBBEAN MON REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED. A SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN WED.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HAITI AND W
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE ISLAND TODAY WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC/
CARIBBEAN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER HAITI THIS
EVENING THEN DRIFT E TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY TUE NIGHT.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE ISLAND THROUGH MID WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A 1006 MB LOW NEAR
30N66W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG 22N73W INTO THE
CARIBBEAN OVER CUBA NEAR 20N76W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM THE LOW NE OUT OF THE AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC NEAR 32N21W ALONG 24N25W ALONG
21N43W INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC TO 15N60W. A WEAK 1016 MB LOW IS
IN THE E ATLC NEAR 28N28W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE W
ATLC FRONT AND THE E ATLC SURFACE LOW ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH
NEAR 31N39W. THE 1006 MB LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE ALONG THE
FRONT OUT OF THE AREA TODAY DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT E TO FROM
32N61W TO HAITI THIS EVENING THEN WEAKEN TO A FRONTAL TROUGH
FROM 32N57W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MON BEFORE DRIFTING W
AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BY TUE NIGHT. THE GULF OF MEXICO
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E OFF THE GEORGIA COAST ON MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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