[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT WITHIN 60 NM OF A 1005 MB LOW
NEAR 28N68W AND WITHIN 75 NM SE OF COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW ALONG 23N75W INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N77W. SEE
ATLANTIC SECTION BELOW. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 26/0600 UTC. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N46W
TO 8N47W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-16N BETWEEN 40W-51W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 15N55W TO
8N56W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-
14N BETWEEN 55W-58W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 18N75W TO
COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. WAVE REMAINS WITHIN A RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED
ON THE SSMI TPW AND SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THUS NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N16W AND CONTINUES TO 10N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N24W 7N39W TO 9N44W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 22N-
30W AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 35W-39W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST
OF W AFRICA S OF 12N W OF 10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN/CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDS
ACROSS THE YUCATAN INTO THE S GULF/E BAY OF CAMPECHE THEN N-NW
TO OVER TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE W ATLC COVERS THE E GULF E OF 85W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS
ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH OFF THE
TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N93W. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE N GULF SUN
REACHING NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND SUN NIGHT THEN LIFT NE OF THE
AREA MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N
W OF 77W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT THAT AT 26/0300 UTC EXTENDS
ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N77W ALONG 18N82W TO 15N83W. A 1009 MB LOW IS
JUST TO THE SE OF THE FRONT NEAR 16N82W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE FRONT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER
HONDURAS ENHANCING THE ABOVE ACTIVITY AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS
NE INTO THE W ATLC AND NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 74W LEAVING THAT AREA WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE
WITH THE ACCOMPANYING WEAK LOW THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE LOW
WILL THEN MOVE W-NW AND ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TUE AND TUE
NIGHT WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA EARLY WED. TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN MON REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED. A
SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN WED.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ACROSS HAITI AND THE W PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD E ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND TODAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD
FRONT IN THE W CARIBBEAN/W ATLC. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH MID WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A 1005 MB LOW...IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE...NEAR 28N68W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S
ALONG 23N75W INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER CUBA NEAR 21N77W. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SAME LOW NE TO BEYOND 31N63W WHERE IT
CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT NE OF THE AREA. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF
THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE FRONT.
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC NEAR 32N20W ALONG 24N27W
ALONG 21N46W INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC TO 15N60W. A WEAK 1015 MB
LOW IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 28N28W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS
BETWEEN THE W ATLC FRONT AND THE E ATLC SURFACE LOW ANCHORED BY
A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 31N40W. THE 1005 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE ALONG THE FRONT BEFORE SHIFTING
N OF AREA SUN NIGHT WHILE THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE BEHIND EXITING
LOW. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM 32N61W TO WINDWARD
PASSAGE WHERE IT WILL STALL BRIEFLY MON NIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING SE
AND DISSIPATING TUE. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL SHIFT E
INTO THE W ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVING TO OFF THE SE CONUS COAST MON AND SLIDE NE ACROSS W ATLC
THROUGH MID WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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