[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262321
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM
18N49W TO 7N52W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THIS WAVE TO BE EMBEDDED IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 46W-54W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM
17N58W TO 8N60W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THIS WAVE TO BE EMBEDDED IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-16N
BETWEEN 54W-61W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N17W AND CONTINUES TO 10N20W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
10N20W TO 8N40W TO 8N50W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
8N-11N BETWEEN 18W-20W...FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 28W-40W...AND FROM
7N-10N BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED SE OF HOUSTON TEXAS AT 28N92W. 5-10
KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 93W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE TO
NORTH CAROLINA... AND FOR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE E
TO 86W... RESULTING IN CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR
16N82W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS NE TO E CUBA NEAR
20N74W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 81W-84W...AND OVER
HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 69W-74W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ALSO INLAND OVER
NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND S
NICARAGUA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...AND THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER E HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N65W. EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE SW
TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT A TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER
THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-
20N BETWEEN 69W-74W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE
ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 32N60W TO TO
THE E TIP OF CUBA AT 20N74W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 90
NM OF THE FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N40W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A WEAK 1015 MB LOW
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N26W MOSTLY VOID OF CONVECTION AND
DISSIPATING. EXPECT THE FRONT OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC TO SHIFT
EASTWARD WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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