[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ON SATURDAY OCT 25 AT 0000 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST
TO EXTEND ALONG 31N60W TO 28N69W TO A 1006 MB LOW PRES CENTER
NEAR 25N79W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO 23N81W. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITHIN 60 NM OF LOW WITH
SEAS TO 11 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
1200 UTC SATURDAY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 14N35W TO 4N36W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY
DEPICT A BULGE OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE BETWEEN THE WAVE AXIS AND THE
AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THIS
MOISTURE EXTENDS TO THE UPPER LEVELS WHERE A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT SUSTAINS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 3N-12N
BETWEEN THE TWO WAVE AXES AND WITHIN 360 NM E OF THE CURRENT
WAVE OF DISCUSSION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ATLC WATERS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
14N46W TO 7N46W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICT
MODERATE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS WHERE ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 260 NM S OF 13N. A BULGE OF
MAXIMUM MOISTURE IS BETWEEN THE WAVE AXIS AND THE AXIS OF A
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 36W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THIS MOISTURE
EXTENDS TO THE UPPER LEVELS WHERE A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
SUSTAINS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN THE
TWO WAVE AXES.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N65W TO 10N67W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAILING BEHIND THE WAVE
AS WELL AS IN THE IMMEDIATE WAVE ENVIRONMENT S OF 13N. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE S OF 13N WITHIN 20 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
WAVE AXIS. ELSEWHERE STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE HINDERS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
GUINEA AND GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 9N20W AND 8N32W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N32W TO 7N36W AND 7N43W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 15W AND
17W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 28W AND
45W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
AXIS EXTENDING S-SW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND NW CARIBBEAN.
THIS TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
FAR SE GULF ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN CUBA...ACROSS
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N88W. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE SW N ATLC...HOWEVER
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE
FRONT...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGHS...A
1021 MB HIGH OVER SW ARKANSAS AND A 1021 MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN
OHIO. AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT INFLUENCED BY STRONG DEEP
LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FAVOR FAIR WEATHER. NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE IS FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
GENERATING GALE-FORCE WINDS ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/ FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
AXIS EXTENDING S-SW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND NW CARIBBEAN.
THE TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS IS SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 17N W OF 77W...INCLUDING CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CUBA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN BASIN WITH AXIS
ALONG 66W...SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. OTHERWISE DEEP LAYER
DRY AIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER.
VARIABLE WINDS OF 10-15 DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT E ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN TO
DISSIPATE ALONG EASTERN CUBA MONDAY MORNING.

HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY A STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE ISLAND ENCOMPASSED BY
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND MIDDLE TO LOW LEVELS DRY AIR
SUSTAIN FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WHEN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE ANALYZED OVER THE SW N ATLC.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONSISTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N62W
SW TO A 1010 MB LOW W OF ANDROS ISLAND NEAR 24N79W TO NORTHERN
CUBA NEAR 23N81W. FROM THAT POINT A COLD FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS
THE FLORIDA STRAITS...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 28N. A GALE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AT 0000 UTC
SATURDAY. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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