[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 241118
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE 18-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N63W
TO 27N72W TO A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N78W.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1006 MB LOW CENTER TO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT GALE-FORCE
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 11 FEET WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF THE
1006 MB LOW CENTER. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 75W
WITHIN 150 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 1006 MB LOW CENTER AND THE
FRONT. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 75W WITHIN 150 NM TO
THE EAST OF THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 11N
BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 11N
BETWEEN 40W AND 46W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 48W/49W FROM 4N TO 9N. IT SHOWED UP IN
THE SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 11N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 46W AND 53W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 60W AND 65W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
GUINEA AND GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 9N20W AND 8N32W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N32W TO 7N36W AND 7N43W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 15W AND
17W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 28W AND
45W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...CROSSING FLORIDA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N66W TO 28N69W. A SHEAR AXIS/TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 28N69W...
ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF FLORIDA...TO 24N84W...INTO THE
CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS WITHIN 400 NM
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W
28N72W...TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...25N82W...INTO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE ALABAMA...INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO 25N97W ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST. A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 31N62W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 31N62W TO 27N70W...TO THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF
FLORIDA...TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N83W
ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN CUBA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W 27N64W 24N73W.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS...INTO THE EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MEXICO...TO A 1022
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N99W...INTO THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 6
HOURS CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. PLEASE
READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/
FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KHQI...KGBK...
KGHB...KGRY...KATP...AND KVOA.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA. HEAVY RAIN
IS BEING OBSERVED AT MARATHON KEY IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN
AREA.

...FROM THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA AND HISPANIOLA INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM HONDURAS NORTHWARD...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS A
1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN NORTHERN GUATEMALA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 17N TO 19N
BETWEEN 86W AND 89W...AND FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 86W AND 87W
ALONG THE COAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN AND AROUND CUBA AND THE
BAHAMAS...IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM 18N TO
26N BETWEEN 73W AND 82W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
CUBA NEAR 23N83W. THE 18-HOUR FORECAST POSITION FOR THIS LOW
CENTER WILL END UP BEING RELATED TO THE FORECAST GALE-FORCE
WINDS. PLEASE REFERENCE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR WIND
SPEED AND SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN AND AROUND CUBA AND THE
BAHAMAS...IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM 18N TO
26N BETWEEN 73W AND 82W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS/TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG
28N69W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF FLORIDA...TO
24N84W...INTO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N72W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N78W IN
PANAMA...AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA...BEYOND SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 79W AND 83W.
ISOLATED MODERATE IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA AND TO THE
WEST OF COLOMBIA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 85W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING ON TOP
OF HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. THIS WIND FLOW IS ON THE EASTERN/
SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE HONDURAS-TO-ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SOME DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE STILL COVERS
HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING
ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND
PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE
CURRENT RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS
THAT LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA.
AN ELONGATED NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE EVENTUALLY WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL START OUT ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA EVENTUALLY IN ABOUT 6 TO 12
HOURS...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 22N44W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
18N TO 24N BETWEEN 40W AND 51W. A SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE
FROM 18N51W TO 16N59W...TO 14N64W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE
COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N70W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
32N44W TO 18N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 17N TO 27N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. PRECIPITATION IS WEAKENING
AND DISSIPATING FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 56W AND 63W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO
23N29W AND 17N30W. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N30W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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