[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 240558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE 24-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 31N61W TO
26N71W...THEN A WARM FRONT TO A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
25N78.5W...AND THEN A COLD FRONT TO 23N82.5W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NORTH-
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 180 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER.
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THAT IS WITHIN 120 NM
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 75W AND 81W CONSISTS OF
NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 12N
BETWEEN 28W AND 35W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N
BETWEEN 40W AND 45W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 15N TO 18N
BETWEEN 61W AND 64W. NUMEROUS STRONG THAT WAS IN VENEZUELA FROM
6N TO 10N BETWEEN 62W AND 66W AT 23/2045 UTC HAS WEAKENED AND
DISSIPATED.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MAURITANIA NEAR 17N16W...CURVING TO 10N19W AND
9N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N26W TO 8N32W 8N38W...TO 10N46W
AND 10N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N
TO 11N BETWEEN 15W AND 17W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N
TO 12N BETWEEN 28W AND 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N
TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...CROSSING FLORIDA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N71W TO 28N74W. A SHEAR AXIS/TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 28N74W TO
25N83W...INTO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...IS WITHIN 400 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N67W 27N75W 22N86W 19N94W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL U.S.A....
PASSING THROUGH MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ENDING NEAR THE
COASTAL BORDER OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN
COASTAL MEXICO. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 28N68W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N68W TO 25N80W IN SOUTH
FLORIDA...TO 24N88W AND 21N93W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W 27N66W 23N75W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KHQI...KGBK...
KGHB...KGRY...KATP...KMDJ...KDLP...KIPN...AND KIKT.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS FROM MARATHON TO THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA.

...FROM THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA AND HISPANIOLA INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM HONDURAS NORTHWARD...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS A
1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN NORTHERN GUATEMALA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 16N TO 17N
BETWEEN 84W AND 85W...AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 16N88.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM GUATEMALA NEAR 14N TO 21N IN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA BETWEEN 87W AND 94W IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO.

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
CUBA. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST POSITION FOR THIS LOW CENTER WILL END
UP BEING RELATED TO THE FORECAST GALE-FORCE WINDS. PLEASE
REFERENCE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR WIND SPEED AND SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS
OF 22.5N75W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AND AROUND
CUBA...AND FROM CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE FROM
19N51W TO 17N58W...TO 13N65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE COAST
OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N69W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 5N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N80W...AND
THEN NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...BEYOND
SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N
BETWEEN 72W AND 76W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA...
AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W IN WESTERN PANAMA.
WEAKENING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION AND REMNANT CLOUDS COVER
COASTAL SECTIONS OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN
77W AND 80W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 78W
AND 80W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING ON TOP
OF HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. THIS WIND FLOW IS ON THE EASTERN/
SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE HONDURAS-TO-ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SOME DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE STILL COVERS
HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WERE IN BARAHONA A FEW HOURS AGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE
AREAS THAT ARE FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE
CURRENT RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS
THAT LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA.
AN ELONGATED NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE EVENTUALLY WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL START OUT ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA EVENTUALLY IN ABOUT 6 TO 12
HOURS...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 22N45W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
18N TO 24N BETWEEN 41W AND 51W. A SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE
FROM 19N51W TO 17N58W...TO 13N65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE
COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N69W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 45W
THROUGH 32N TO 18N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W...AND FROM 19N TO
21N BETWEEN 56W AND 61W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N
TO 20N BETWEEN 37W AND 50W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO
20N29W AND 14N36W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N31W TO 28N32W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND
LOCALLY STRONG FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 23W AND 28W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
20W AND 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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