[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 12N31W TO 04N31W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TPW AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS IN THE
ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. AN UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
IS PREVAILING OVER THIS WAVE SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 03N-10N BETWEEN 29W-33W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 13N42W TO 07N42W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALSO
IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. DESPITE THIS...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS RELATED TO THIS WAVE DUE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS AT ABOUT 115 NM W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 18N62W TO 09N64W...MOVING W AT 10
KT. MODERATE MOISTURE CONTENT IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE
ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WHICH SUPPORTS SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 13N BETWEEN 58W-66W. A DRY AIRMASS
ALOFT ALONG WITH DEEP-LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR IS
PREVAILING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE N OF 13N
SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC FROM 13N17W TO 09N23W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N23W TO
09N30W...IT RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 08N32W TO
08N42W...THEN AGAIN W OF A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE FROM 08N47W TO
09N57W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN
26W-31W AND FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 53W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE WITH CENTER NEAR 40N70W IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN GULF FROM 26N81W TO 20N92W.
STRONG DEEP-LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND A DRY AIRMASS INHIBITS
THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
HENCE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF WATERS. TO THE SSW...A
1008 MB SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED TO BE NEAR 26N86W ENHANCING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE TROUGHS EXTENDS FROM THIS
LOW...ONE TO 24N81W AND THE SECOND ONE TO 19N87W. SCATTERED
MODERATE MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 81W-85W.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY S OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE E GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS APPROACHING THE NW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA W OF 77W. THIS LOW IS SUPPORTED AT
UPPER-LEVELS BY A DIFFLUENT FLOW THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. TO THE E...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND STRONG
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY S OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL BECOME
STATIONARY ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING W ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA BUT DUE TO THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR
PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.

HISPANIOLA...

DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR AND A DRY AIRMASS IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE
ISLAND SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE-LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 40N70W IS SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 42N65W TO
30N67W TO 26N80W...THEN EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE EASTERN GULF. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 280 NM S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SW OF THE AZORES
ISLANDS...A 1009 MB LOW IS NEAR 32N30W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 32N31W. WEAK RIDGING AND FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE N OF 18N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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