[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ON SATURDAY OCT 25 AT 0000 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST
TO EXTEND FROM 31N60W TO 28N69W TO A 1006 MB LOW PRES CENTER
NEAR 24N80W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITHIN 60
NM OF THE LOW WITH SEAS TO 11 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED WITHIN 150 NM NW OF LOW AND N OF FRONT W OF 75W WITH
SEAS TO 10 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
1200 UTC SATURDAY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 14N38W TO 05N39W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY
DEPICTS ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. A
DIFFLUENT FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS SUSTAINS SCATTERED LIGHT TO
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 04N-15N BETWEEN THE WAVE AXIS AND THE
NEXT WAVE AXIS TO THE W...FROM 34W-47W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 14N48W TO 07N49W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY
DEPICTS ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE WHERE
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN
47W-53W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N67W TO 11N68W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF
THE WAVE. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS FEATURE AS STRONG DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER IT.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXITS THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 11N15W AND
EXTENDS TO 09N28W. THE ITCZ IS FROM 08N52W TO 07N59W. ASIDE FROM
THE CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE...NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS PRESENT.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN US WITH AXIS EXTENDING
S-SW ACROSS THE NE GULF. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE FAR SE GULF ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...AND CONNECTED TO A 1008 MB LOW
NEAR 25N80W. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS MAINLY S OF THE BOUNDARY AFFECTION THE SW CARIBBEAN AND W
ATLANTIC. A STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS PREVAILING ACROSS
THE BASIN LIMITING CONVECTION. SURFACE RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...WHICH IS FUNNELING
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GENERATING GALE-FORCE WINDS ON
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/ FZPN03
KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.
ELSEWHERE...10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING S-SW ACROSS THE NE GULF. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 17N W OF
78W...AFFECTING WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
OVER THE EASTERN BASIN WITH AXIS ALONG 67W...SEE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. ASIDE FROM THIS...THE REST
OF THE BASIN CONTINUES WITH FAIR WEATHER PREVAILING AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 17N77W SUPPORTS SUBSIDENCE. VARIABLE
WINDS OF 10-15 DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ESE MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND DISSIPATE ALONG EASTERN CUBA BY EARLY
MONDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

A STABLE/FAIR WEATHER ENVIRONMENT OVER THE ISLAND SUPPORTED BY
AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PREVAILING OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE ANALYZED OVER THE
SW ATLANTIC FROM 25N80W TO 31N60W CONNECTED TO 1008 MB LOW S OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 25N80W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM
31N60W TO 46N56W CONNECTING TO A 995 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
42N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 24N-
30N...W OF 69W AND FROM 36N-51N BETWEEN 41W-51W. A GALE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1008 MB LOW S OF FLORIDA
AT 0000 UTC SATURDAY. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE
INFORMATION. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA

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