[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142343
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 21.2N 66.0W AT 14/2100 UTC OR
ABOUT 295 NM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND...OR ABOUT 669 NM S OF
BERMUDA...MOVING NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120
KT. GONZALO IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY
GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO
RICO TONIGHT. PRESENTLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 61W-67W. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
EXPECT A GALE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N W OF 95W AFTER
15/1800 UTC LASTING TWELVE HOURS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W AND
CONTINUES TO 6N23W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N23W TO 7N31W TO
11N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NEAR THE AFRICAN COAST FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 16W AND 18W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 20W AND
41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W TO
24N90W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N85W MOVING SE. A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 23N91W TO 17N94W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 250 NM S AND E OF THE
FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE N OF THE FRONT IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 91 W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ALSO EXPECT A
GALE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N W OF 95W AFTER 15/1800 UTC
LASTING TWELVE HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MAINLY DIURNAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER CUBA AND JAMAICA
IN THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AIRMASS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN
81W AND 84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. THESE ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENT BANDS AROUND THE DEPARTING HURRICANE
GONZALO. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT CONVECTION IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE S GULF. ALSO EXPECT
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS LOW IS COMBINING
WITH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH GONZALO TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS EXPECT MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE ISLAND IN THE ONGOING PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

HURRICANE GONZALO IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING N
OF 27N W OF 79W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
31N39W TO 26N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 70 NM OF THIS FRONT. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 16N42W MOVING NW. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. A
1020 MB HIGH IS W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N23W MOVING E.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SURFACE
FRONT TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS. THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT TO EXTEND INTO THE W
ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST AND THE
BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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