[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 150604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO AT 15/0600 UTC IS NEAR 22.6N
67.0W. THE CENTER OF GONZALO IS ABOUT 595 NM TO THE SOUTH OF
BERMUDA. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES
11 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB. THE
MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS ARE 110 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 135
KNOTS. THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR BERMUDA. PUBLIC ADVISORIES FOR HURRICANE GONZALO ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES FOR HURRICANE GONZALO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN 65W AND
67W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 61W
AND 65W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N TO 20N
BETWEEN 61W AND 64W...AND FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 61W AND 64W.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

.COLD FRONT FROM 30N84W TO 23N90W TO 18N94W. S OF 19.5N BETWEEN
95W AND 96W...NW TO N WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N36W 29N39W 25N55W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE
WINDS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST
OF 41W...SW TO W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT PRIMARILY IN
NW SWELL...EXCEPT 12 TO 17 FT W OF 37W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NO TROPICAL WAVE IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 16N43W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 40W AND 43W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...TO 10N18W AND 8N23W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 8N23W TO 7N27W 9N35W AND 12N41W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STRONG FROM 3N TO
9N BETWEEN 23W AND 28W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 43W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE
FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS FROM THE TROUGH
COVERS THE U.S.A. FROM MISSOURI EASTWARD. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO
THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM EL SALVADOR AND WESTERN
NICARAGUA...INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF GUATEMALA...AND THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 20N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 91W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
27N NORTHWARD FROM 78W WESTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...TO CENTRAL CUBA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KGRY...KIPN...
AND KVOA.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE COVERING THE AREA FROM TAMPA/ST.
PETERSBURG AND SURROUNDING SMALLER COMMUNITIES...TO SARASOTA.
LIGHT RAIN WAS BEING REPORTED EARLIER AT SARASOTA.

PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC..FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE
WARNING.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF
SOUTHERN HAITI.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
15/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.25 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 10N87W...
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 13N SOUTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD TO THE
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS
HISPANIOLA...AND IT ALSO COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF SOUTHERN HAITI.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN HAITI FROM 18N
TO 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W...AND JUST OFF THE COAST OF CUBA
ALONG 20N BETWEEN 78W AND 79W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER WERE OBSERVED IN BARAHONA AT
15/0000 UTC. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE
AT THIS TIME AT VARIOUS SITES THAT ARE AROUND THE ISLAND.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO COVER HISPANIOLA AND THE
AREA THAT IS AROUND HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR
SO OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A
RIDGE WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME OF THE
FORECAST. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE
ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM SOUTH AMERICA TO 22N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 33N38W...THROUGH 30N37W 29N40W 26N50W TO 25N54W. THIS IS
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND FRONT THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
GALE-FORCE WIND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STRONG FROM 26N TO
30N BETWEEN 36W AND 47W.

A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N23W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 32N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 35W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...TO CENTRAL CUBA.

PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC..FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE
WARNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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