[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 20.3N 65.2W AT 14/1500 UTC OR
ABOUT 339 NM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND...OR ABOUT 721 NM S OF
BERMUDA...MOVING NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 973 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115
KT. THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC TODAY... AND REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY...AND POSSIBLY BECOME A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE BY THURSDAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL AFFECT
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO TODAY. PRESENTLY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 61W-67W.
SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
EXPECT A GALE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N W OF 95W AFTER
15/1800 UTC LASTING SIX HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM
20N52W TO 11N52W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS WEAK BUT HAS A
SURFACE WIND SHIFT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N44W DRIFTING
NW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-
17N BETWEEN 37W-44W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W AND
CONTINUES TO 6N21W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N21W TO 6N37W TO
11N43W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 12W-19W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 19W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NEAR 30N86W TO 24N90W TO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO AT 19N96W MOVING
SE. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 23N90W
TO 18N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT. 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF
THE FRONT WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 93 W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ALSO EXPECT A
GALE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N W OF 95W AFTER 15/1800 UTC
LASTING SIX HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DUE TO THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF GONZALO. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN
74W-84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND
NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO BE
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO THE COLD FRONT. ALSO EXPECT
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E TIP OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC DUE TO GONZALO. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

HURRICANE GONZALO IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. A COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N42W TO 26N55W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1021 MB HIGH
IS W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N22W MOVING E. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SURFACE FRONT TO MOVE E
WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND INTO THE W ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION ALONG
THE FLORIDA COAST AND THE BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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