[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141202
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO AT 14/1200 UTC IS NEAR 19.9N
64.8W. THE CENTER OF GONZALO IS ABOUT 91 NM TO THE NORTH OF ST.
THOMAS. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES 11
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB. THE
MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS ARE 95 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 115
KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES FOR HURRICANE GONZALO ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES FOR HURRICANE GONZALO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 18N AROUND THE EDGE OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...TO 21N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 63W AND
66W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS FROM ..AND ON TOP OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO...ALONG 30N90W TO 26N92W TO 22.5N98W. EXPECT...W OF
FRONT NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. N OF 27N WITHIN
150 NM AHEAD OF FRONT S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 27N WITHIN 240 NM E OF FRONT. THE 12-HOUR
FORECAST SHOWS THE COLD FRONT TO BE FROM 30N85W TO 26N87W TO
18N94W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS...S OF 21N W OF 95W NW TO N
WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE S OF 24N W OF
FRONT NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 11N TO
21N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 53W
AND 55W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 20N50W 14N54W 13N57W...
TO TRINIDAD IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 53W AND 58W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 15.5N44W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 17N
BETWEEN 38W AND 43W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SENEGAL/GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 13N16W...TO 9N20W AND 8N25W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 8N25W TO 8N35W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 14W AND 17W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 17W AND 24W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD FROM 44W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL U.S.A. AT THIS TIME. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 22N98W. A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 90 NM TO THE EAST OF THE
COLD FRONT...FROM 22N NORTHWARD. A SQUALL LINE IS WITHIN 120 NM
TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...FROM 28N NORTHWARD.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 270 NM TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH THE LINE FROM...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N90W...TO 22N98W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N74W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 25N81W...TO THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF CUBA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KCRH...KHQI...
KGBK...KGHB...KVQT...KGRY...KATP...KSPR...KMDJ...KIPN...KIKT...
KVOA...AND KDLP WITH A LOW CLOUD CEILING AND A VISIBILITY OF 1
MILE OR LESS WITH FOG.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND AREAS OF RAIN AND SOME THUNDER
COVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AND IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF
MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PERRY
FLORIDA WESTWARD.

PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ABOUT
THE GALE WARNING...THE 12-HOUR FORECAST SHOWS THE COLD FRONT TO
BE FROM 30N85W TO 26N87W TO 18N94W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS...S
OF 21N W OF 95W NW TO N WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
ELSEWHERE S OF 24N W OF FRONT NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO
8 FT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
14/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.52 IN
GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N/11N FROM 73W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND
86W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. A 500 MB
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA TOWARD THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST...TOWARD NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
8N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 11N78W...TO 14N84W IN NORTHEASTERN
COASTAL NICARAGUA. NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W...AND ALONG THE COAST
OF EL SALVADOR.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS
HISPANIOLA...AND IT ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN PUERTO
RICO AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 14N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD.

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED
ELSEWHERE AT THIS TIME AT VARIOUS SITES THAT ARE AROUND THE
ISLAND. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE
WATERS THAT ARE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND
80W.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO COVER HISPANIOLA AND THE
AREA THAT IS AROUND HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS
MODEL FORECASTS FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOW THAT A NORTHEAST-
TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N60W TO
27N68W...TO 22N67W...TO THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND PARTS OF
THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 69W AND 76W...IN AN AREA OF
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. THIS DIFFLUENT
WIND FLOW IS AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE OVERALL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAT COVERS HISPANIOLA...AND IT IS ABOUT 400 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND HURRICANE
GONZALO.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 31N45W. A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 31N45W TO 28N50W AND 26N56W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 28N50W AND 25N60W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 34N TO 36N
BETWEEN 37W AND 41W.

A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N24W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 32N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N74W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 25N81W...TO THE WESTERN SECTIONS
OF CUBA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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