[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF THE NOW HURRICANE GONZALO IS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N
62.9W AT 13/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 17 NM SE OF ST MARTIN...OR ABOUT
750 NM E OF BERMUDA...MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65
KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHENS MORE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
12 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...BRITISH AND U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. PRESENTLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 61W-65W. SEE THE LATEST
FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM
20N49W TO 13N49W MOVING W AT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
PRESENT AT THIS MOMENT AS MODERATE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS
PREVAILING IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W AND
CONTINUES TO 06N14W TO 07N24W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N24W TO
06N32W TO 12N41W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT
11N50W AND CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF GUYANA IN SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 06N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA MAINLY E OF 18W AND FROM 07N-14N
BETWEEN 38W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS OFFSHORE THE COAST OF TEXAS AND NORTHERN
MEXICO EXTENDING FROM 28N96W TO 29N99W. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND
OVER SE TEXAS AND EXTENDING THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO ENHANCING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SE CONUS REACHING THE NW GULF WATERS N OF
28N. NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15-25 KT IS NOTICED MAINLY IN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE
10-15 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. ASIDE FROM THE
CONVECTION RELATED TO THE FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE BASIN. AT UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO
THE WEST ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO VERACRUZ MEXICO
ENHANCING CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KT
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

HURRICANE GONZALO IS APPROACHING EASTERN PUERTO RICO. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE
...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA S
OF 16N DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND SUPPORT OF
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CAUSED BY THE INTERACTION OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH OVER HONDURAS AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT ACROSS
CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND
ENHANCED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER HISPANIOLA. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...EXPECT HURRICANE GONZALO TO CONTINUE ITS MOVEMENT TO
THE NW-NNW. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
ISLAND. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE REMNANTS OF FAY ARE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
34N51W AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF TROPICAL STORM FAY EXTENDING FROM 30N51W
TO 26N58W. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N28W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE E WHILE THE TROPICAL FEATURES WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NW ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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