[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM FAY IS CENTERED NEAR 34.1N 52.2W AT 13/1500 UTC
OR ABOUT 643 NM ENE OF BERMUDA MOVING E AT 25 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. FAY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-
TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. THE POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NE OF THE CENTER FROM 35N-38N
BETWEEN 45W-51W. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 62.4W AT 13/1800
UTC OR ABOUT 56 NM SE OF ST MARTIN...OR ABOUT 160 NM ESE OF ST
THOMAS...MOVING WNW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO
75 KT. TROPICAL STORM GONZALO IS STRENGTHENING WHILE IT MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
CONTINUE ON ANTIGUA. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-
20N BETWEEN 58W-64W. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM
20N47W TO 12N46W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DERIVED WINDS INDICATE THAT THIS WAVE HAS
SEPARATED FROM A 1010 MB LOW NOW NEAR 14N43W. MOST CONVECTION IS
NOW WELL DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-
18N BETWEEN 35W-43W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 7N11W AND
CONTINUES TO 5N15W TO 7N22W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 7N22W TO
6N32W TO 12N41W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 11N87W
AND CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. BESIDES
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 10W-17W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 24W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST
FROM 29N96W TO 27N97W. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER SE TEXAS
MOVING TOWARDS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS IN A LINE FROM N LOUISIANA TO CORPUS CHRISTI
TEXAS. 15-25 KT SE TO S HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW COVERS THE
GULF. AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER
E OVER THE NE GULF FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 83W-87W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
85W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO VERACRUZ MEXICO WITH CONVECTION. ALSO
EXPECT 25-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS N OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TROPICAL STORM GONZALO IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 77W-83W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AMERICA S OF BELIZE. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W HONDURAS. A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO TO TRAVERSE THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF TROPICAL STORM FAY FROM 30N54W TO
27N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH. A
1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N30W. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE E WITH
CONVECTION WHILE THE TROPICAL FEATURES MOVE SLOWLY NW WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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