[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 140604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO AT 14/0300 UTC IS NEAR 18.7N
63.4W. THE CENTER OF GONZALO IS ABOUT 35 NM TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ANGUILLA...AND ABOUT 92 NM TO THE EAST OF ST.
THOMAS. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES 10
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. THE
MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS ARE 75 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 90
KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES FOR HURRICANE GONZALO ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES FOR HURRICANE GONZALO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 17N TO 21N IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN BETWEEN 60W AND 62W...AND ON TOP OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO...ALONG 30N93W 25N98W. EXPECT...N OF 27N WITHIN 120 NM
E OF FRONT SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. W OF FRONT NW TO
N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. THE 18-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS
OF...THE COLD FRONT ALONG 30N86W 24N90W 18N94W. EXPECT GALE-
FORCE WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE WEST OF 95W...NW TO N
WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE S OF 23N W OF 92W
NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W FROM 12N TO 20N.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 53W
AND 55W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 20N50W 14N54W 13N57W...
TO TRINIDAD IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 53W AND 55W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 18N45W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 17N
BETWEEN 38W AND 43W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN
38W AND 43W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W...TO 10N18W 8N20W AND 6N26W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 6N26W TO 7N30W 10N32W 11N33W 12N35W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 13W AND
15W...AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 17W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL U.S.A. AT THIS TIME. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO GULF
COAST NEAR 24N98W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 150 NM
TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...FROM 23N NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 85W AND 91W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 26N
BETWEEN 90W AND THE GULF COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N74W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KEMK...KHQI...
KCRH...KGBK...KGHB...KATP...KSPR...KMDJ...KIPN...KIKT...
KVOA...AND KDLP WITH A LOW CLOUD CEILING AND A VISIBILITY OF 1
MILE OR LESS WITH FOG.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND AREAS OF RAIN AND SOME THUNDER
COVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND
IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE FROM PERRY FLORIDA WESTWARD.

PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ABOUT
THE GALE WARNING...EXPECTED IN ABOUT 18 HOURS...A COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND FROM 30N86W TO 24N90W TO 18N94W. S OF 21N W OF 95W
NW TO N WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE S OF 23N W
OF 92W NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
14/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.52 IN
GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N FROM 73W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND
86W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 10N
BETWEEN 73W AND THE COLOMBIA BORDER WITH VENEZUELA AND 76W.
SCATTERED STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W IN COASTAL NICARAGUA...AND
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
3N77W 5N83W 7N85W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS
HISPANIOLA...AND IT ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN PUERTO
RICO AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...A LOW CLOUD CEILING AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING OBSERVED
IN PUERTO PLATA. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER WERE BEING REPORTED AT
BARAHONA AT 14/0000 UTC. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT THIS TIME AT VARIOUS SITES THAT ARE
AROUND THE ISLAND. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO COVER HISPANIOLA AND THE
AREA THAT IS AROUND HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-
TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N57W TO
24N64W...TO 22N67W...TO THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND PARTS OF
THE BAHAMAS FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W...IN AN AREA OF
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. THIS DIFFLUENT
WIND FLOW IS AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE OVERALL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAT COVERS HISPANIOLA...AND IT IS ABOUT 450 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND HURRICANE
GONZALO.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 31N49W. A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 31N49W TO 27N56W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 25N57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 34N TO 37N BETWEEN 38W AND 43W.

A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N26W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS TO 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N74W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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