[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM FAY IS CENTERED NEAR 29.5N 65.4W AT 11/2100 UTC
OR ABOUT 265 NM S OF BERMUDA MOVING N AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 65W-69W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT E OF FAY FROM 28N-38N
BETWEEN 52W-62W SUPPORTED BY UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW
GENERATED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/
WTNT32 FOR MORE DETAILS.

A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN EMBEDDED 1009 MB LOW IS AT AROUND 350 NM
E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N55W TO
13N54W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS IN THE
ENVIRONMENT OF THESE WAVE/LOW AS DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DESPITE THIS...ONLY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-16N
BETWEEN 54W-55W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W AFFECTING THE
LEEWARD ISLAND...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS. THE CHANCE FOR FORMATION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS OF
THIS SYSTEM IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N35W TO 07N39W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS IN
THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE AS DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
PRESENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE...WITH STRONGEST
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 09N-11N BETWEEN 38W-41W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 09N14W AND CONTINUES TO 10N21W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
10N21W TO 09N29W TO 11N36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 28W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WATERS WITH
CENTER NEAR 25N87W. THIS SYSTEM PAIRED WITH A 1019 MB SURFACE
HIGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 31N84W IS PRODUCING
FAIR WEATHER OVER E GULF OF MEXICO. TO THE W...UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE PERSISTS AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER EASTERN
MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF 93W WITH
THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY REMAINING ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO AND
TEXAS. SURFACE E WINDS OF 5-10 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN
TEXAS AND NE MEXICO TO DISSIPATE N OF THE GULF WATERS BUT SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD AFFECT THE NW GULF WATERS. SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT TO THE SE GULF FROM THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF CUBA AND EXTENDING
TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY
AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE ONLY AFFECTING THEIR LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT E OF NICARAGUA FROM 12N-
16N BETWEEN 80W-83W SUPPORTED BY UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. SURFACE
E WINDS OF 10 KTS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR A TROPICAL WAVE TO APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES
ENHANCING CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL PRESENT OVER THE
ISLAND...BUT WEAKENING RAPIDLY. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PREVAIL OVER THE ISLAND
DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE BASIN IS TROPICAL STORM FAY...FOR
MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. ASIDE FROM
THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING W OF THE
BAHAMAS FROM 24N-25N BETWEEN 78W-80W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N73W. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 29N30W
TO A 1001 LOW CENTERED NEAR 40N11W. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO
THIS FEATURE. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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