[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM FAY IS CENTERED NEAR 30.9N 65.0W AT 12/0300 UTC
OR ABOUT 84 NM S OF BERMUDA MOVING N AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
REMAIN NEAR 60 KT...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE CENTER OF FAY WILL
PASS NEAR BERMUDA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA
ON SUNDAY MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY A COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS N-NE OF THE STORM CENTER FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 64W-69W. SEE
THE LATEST FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/ WTNT32 FOR MORE DETAILS.

A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1010 MB LOW IS ALONG 57W OR
ABOUT 320 NM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE EXCEPT N
OF 17N WHERE DRY AIR AND DUST IS DEPICTED IN GOES-R IMAGERY AS
WELL AS IN THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND TSTMS ARE FOCUSED IN THE SOUTHERN ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE
FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 53W-59W. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT OF THE
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE CHANCE FOR
CYCLOGENESIS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS REMAINS AS MEDIUM.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS STARTING EARLY
SUNDAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N36W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 13N39W TO 8N40W...MOVING W AT 20
KT. AN INVERTED MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORT THIS WAVE THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE WAVE IS
MOVING ACROSS A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 4N-19N
BETWEEN 27W-44W. SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE N-NW SIDE OF
THE WAVE IS OBSERVED IN THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY...REGION CURRENTLY
DEVOID OF CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N24W TO 10N38W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 8N42W TO 5N52W. SEE WAVES SECTION FOR INFORMATION
ON CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED W OF GUATEMALA EXTENDING
NE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF BEING ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR
29N85W. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES ACROSS GREAT PORTIONS OF
THE BASIN...THUS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING E-SE WINDS OF 5-15 KT N OF 23N.
ELSEWHERE NE WINDS OF 15 KT DOMINATE. A MIDDLE-LEVEL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALONG MODERATE SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON THE SE GULF S OF 24N BETWEEN 83W-
86W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL START
ENTERING THE NW BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ELONGATED MIDDLE-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN BEING ANCHORED BY A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ON NICARAGUA. THIS TROUGH ALOFT ALONG WITH ABUNDANT
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SW BASIN SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF A LINE FROM 17N83W SE TO 12N72W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OFFSHORE SOUTHERN CUBA AND OFFSHORE NORTHERN
HISPANIOLA BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 320 NM E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TOMORROW
EVENING. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR IT TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFFSHORE NORTHERN
HISPANIOLA. SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT TWO DAYS AS A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT PERSISTS AS WELL
AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE BASIN IS TROPICAL STORM FAY...WHICH
CENTER IS MOVING NORTHWARD OUTSIDE THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. SEE
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. SURFACE RIDGING IS
WEST AND EAST OF FAY IN THE REMAINDER BASIN N OF 20N.
OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED IN THE EASTERN ATLC ALONG
30N14W TO 28N21W TO 27N27W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
IT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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