[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM FAY IS CENTERED NEAR 27.9N 65.3W AT 11/1500 UTC
OR ABOUT 265 NM S OF BERMUDA MOVING N AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO
PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN
65W-69W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF FAY N OF 24N
BETWEEN 56W-62W IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
GENERATED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/
WTNT32 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N34W TO 6N37W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD AIRMASS OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED
ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-17N BETWEEN
27W-41W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM
20N55W TO A 1009 MB LOW AT 16N55W TO 12N54W...MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-
18N BETWEEN 50W-56W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES TO 10N20W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N20W
TO 10N25W TO 9N30W TO 11N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES W OF A TROPICAL
WAVE...AND A SURFACE LOW AT 7N44W...FROM 6N47W TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 20W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 31N84W PRODUCING
FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. 5-10 KT E TO SE SURFACE
WINDS ARE ALSO OVER THE NE GULF. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER S
TEXAS. PREFRONTAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 21N95W TO 17N95W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 94W-
98W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE E GULF NEAR 26N86W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N100W ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO DISSIPATE N OF THE GULF...FOR SOME
CONVECTION TO ADVECT TO THE SE GULF FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND FOR CONTINUED WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 22N85W TO
19N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH. A
RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH ONLY 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS FROM
10N-16N BETWEEN 80W-84W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST
OF N COLOMBIA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 73W-75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER E CUBA...JAMAICA...
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS A TROPICAL WAVE TO BE JUST E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE ISLAND DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND AFTERNOON/EVENING INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE BASIN IS TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSED
IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE TROPICAL WAVES ARE
ALSO PRODUCING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION. A 1025 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N38W. A COLD FRONT IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N17W TO 31N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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