[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON OCT 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N37W TO 9N34W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
IN THE SOUTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED IN THE SSMI TPW
IMAGERY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND VARIOUS GOES-R PRODUCTS. A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IN THIS REGION SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 30W-39W. IN
THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT...SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST AS WELL
AS STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR SUPPRESS CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 300 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 25N52W TO 10N56W...MOVING W AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE
THAT SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS
FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 51W-57W AND FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 47W-56W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 16N76W TO 4N79W...MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. A MIDDLE-
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH SUPPORT THIS WAVE...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH MOISTURE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH
INTERACTION WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 14N17W
TO 7N28W TO 6N37W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 6N38W AND CONTINUES
ALONG 8N46W TO 11N52W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N
BETWEEN 20W-36W. A CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS ALONG
THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM SENEGAL TO NORTHERN LIBERIA EXTENDING
40 NM OFF THE COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. AND W ATLC WATERS AND EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL-
SOUTHERN GULF. THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
ANCHORED SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA EXTENDS TO
THE SW GULF OF MEXICO GENERATING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT
ALONG MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE W AND SE GULF SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 22N BETWEEN 88W-95W AS WELL
AS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB
HIGH NEAR 40N66W EXTENDS SW INTO THE NE GULF AND PROVIDE E-SE
WIND OF 5-15 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH WED...HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF
MOISTURE IN THE REGION ALONG WITH LIFTING SUPPORTED BY THE
TROUGH ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF THROUGH WED MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE WESTERN
YUCATAN CHANNEL EXTENDING TO THE NW CARIBBEAN BASIN N OF 19N W
OF 81W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THAT REGION. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE E-SE OF
PUERTO RICO BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THAT
REGION AS WELL AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
TO ENTER THE BASIN ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE REMAINDER NORTHERN
BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRY AND DUSTY SAHARAN AIRMASS
AS WELL AS STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR WHICH IS
INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER HAZY
CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED OVER HISPANIOLA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CUBA. TRADES OF 20-25 KT ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM
12N-17N BETWEEN 68W-81W ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE.
ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE.

...HISPANIOLA...

NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TONIGHT OVER THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT
WATERS BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND STRONG DEEP
LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...HAZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL DUE
TO THE PASSAGE OF A DRY AND DUSTY SAHARAN AIRMASS. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE AIRMASS CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. AND W ATLC WATERS AND EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL-
SOUTHERN GULF TO SUPPORT DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
30N67W TO 25N74W TO 22N81W. SHALLOW MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. FARTHER
EAST...A 1014 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 26N60W FROM WHICH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO 22N61W. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE LACK OF SUPPORT
ALOFT. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY
DISCUSSED...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE N OF 25N E OF
42W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


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