[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON OCT 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N37W TO 10N36W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THIS WAVE AT THE LEADING EDGE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 39W.

A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N55W TO 9N56W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TPW
INDICATES THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
THIS WAVE IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
LOCATED NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES AT 17N61W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 44W AND 55W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 20N80W TO
PANAMA NEAR 8N81W. SSMI TPW SHOWS DRY AIR N OF 16 NORTH WITH
VERY MOIST AIR LOCATED S OF 16N ALONG THE WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER PANAMA AND THE
SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N TO 15N BETWEEN 75W AND 84W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W...TO 7N25W TO 6N37W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
6N37W TO 10N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 17W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD MID TO UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF BASIN.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM
THE FLORIDA STRAITS/N CUBA COAST NEAR 23N81W WESTWARD TO 23N87W
TO 26N93W. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM IS
POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
REGION OF THE JET STREAM COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FORM THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 94W. A
WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS PUSHING SE ACROSS E TX AND W
LA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX
FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W. AT THE SURFACE...SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY FROM 10 TO 15 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FAVORABLE REGION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH
POSSIBLE ONGOING ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS THAT PART OF THE
BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN
FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W. THIS ACTIVITY IS S OF A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. AN UPPER LOW NEAR 17N61W
IS INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 18N FROM THE LESSER
ANTILLES WESTWARD TO 66W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
CONVECTION FREE IN THE PRESENCE OF A DRY AIR MASS AND STRONG
WIND SHEAR. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE N CARIBBEAN WEST OF PUERTO RICO.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND WILL SPREAD INTO PUERTO RICO DUE TO THE UPPER LOW
AND AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. ENHANCED CONVECTION WILL ALSO
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND.
HOWEVER...HAZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
AS A DRY/DUSTY SAHARAN AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE
ISLAND. INCREASING MOISTURE MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. AND W ATLC WATERS AND EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL-
SOUTHERN GULF WHICH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ALONG 31N69W TO 28N69W
AND TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT AT 28N69W THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W TO THE N CUBA COAST NEAR 23N81W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100NM OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR
27N61W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 26N59W TO
24N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE SURFACE LOW.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM 31N50W TO 27N50W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 27N50W TO 23N54W. AN UPPER LOW RESIDES IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 25N52W. THE COMBINATION
OF THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 47W AND 56W. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N41W TO 25N41W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 25N40W. THE COMBINATION
OF THE UPPER LOW AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N
TO 26N BETWEEN 38W AND 43W. THE REMAINDER OF CONVECTION IN THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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