[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061107
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 26W AND 36W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO
17N BETWEEN 40W AND 55W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE COASTAL AREAS
THAT ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF CUBA NEAR 21N79W...TO
17N80W...TO PANAMA NEAR 8N81W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF
14N76W.

A CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W IN WESTERN
GUATEMALA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION AT THIS MOMENT.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W...TO 10N20W 6N28W AND 7N35W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N35W TO 8N46W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 2N TO 7N
BETWEEN 10W AND 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.A...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING
THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER EASTERN U.S.A. TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N65W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
27N70W...TO 24N75W IN THE BAHAMAS...TO THE NORTHERN SIDE COAST
OF CUBA THAT IS NEAR 23N81W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
CUBA TO 24N90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND 26N96W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W 26N73W 23N79W...AND IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 87W AND
90W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N TO 26N
BETWEEN 91W AND 96W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 27N SOUTHWARD.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF
28N...AND EVERYWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W 26N76W
25N80W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA 1020 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER... NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND
THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KBQX...KGVX...
KVAF...KATP...KGRY...KGBK...AND KDLP.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT LOCATIONS THAT
ARE IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS...AND FROM PALACIOS
TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

ONE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 15N61W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE 15N61W CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF
HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN BETWEEN 56W AND 67W. A
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON TOP OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF HISPANIOLA...TO 17N77W AND 17N85W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS MOMENT.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH THE
EASTERNMOST PARTS OF PANAMA...BEYOND 7N81W IN PANAMA...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN
71W IN VENEZUELA AROUND LAKE MARACAIBO AND 85W TO THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...AND FROM 3N TO 5N
BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 14N76W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA...
WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON TOP OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE ISLAND. THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 24
HOURS AGO IS MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF
CENTRAL CUBA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING
REPORTED AT DIFFERENT SITES ACROSS THE ISLAND.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON TOP OF PARTS OF
HISPANIOLA WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. A
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 48
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH AT THE START OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD WILL
MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHWEST QUICKLY. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW...WITH AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA
RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING NEAR 29N62W. THIS CENTER HAS BEEN
SUPPORTING A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N60W. A
SURFACE TROUGH CURVES AWAY FROM THE 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER...TO 25N61W AND 25N66W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N49W TO 27N52W AND 22N57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 48W AND 51W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 46W AND 70W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 24N41W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 25W AND 52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN
39W AND 43W...AND FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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