[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON OCT 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 23W AND
33W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N52W 13N54W 9N55W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 50W AND
53W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO
16N BETWEEN 49W AND 55W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO
WESTERN JAMAICA...TO PANAMA NEAR 9N79W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N
TO 14N BETWEEN 79W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND FROM
14N TO 15N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W.

A CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W IN GUATEMALA. THE
WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION AT THIS MOMENT.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL TO 13N17W 7N30W AND 7N35W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 7N35W TO 8N42W AND 9N46W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 11W AND
33W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 34W AND
60W. STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 5N17W...6N11W...AND 10N14W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.A...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING
THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER EASTERN U.S.A. TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
29N70W...TO 24N76W IN THE BAHAMAS...TO THE NORTHERN SIDE COAST
OF CUBA THAT IS ALONG 80W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
CUBA TO 23N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND 26N96W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W
28N70W 25N76W...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 27N SOUTHWARD.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF
THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...AND EVERYWHERE IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W 27N75W 27N80W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND
THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KBQX...KXIH...
KVAF...KEMK...KGBK...KGHB...KVQT...KMDJ...AND KDLP.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH HAZE ARE BEING OBSERVED AT
THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

ONE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 15N61W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE 15N61W CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF
HISPANIOLA. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO 17N77W AND
17N85W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 57W AND 662W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH THE
EASTERNMOST PARTS OF PANAMA...BEYOND 7N81W IN PANAMA...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 72W AND
76W...AND FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF COLOMBIA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA...
WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON TOP OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE ISLAND. THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 24
HOURS AGO HAS MOVED TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AT THIS MOMENT. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AT
DIFFERENT SITES ACROSS THE ISLAND.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON TOP OF PARTS OF
HISPANIOLA WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. A
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 48
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN
INVERTED TROUGH AT THE START OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD WILL
MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHWEST QUICKLY. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW...WITH AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA
RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 29N61W. THIS CENTER SUPPORTS A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 29N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES AWAY FROM THE 1013
MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO 25N61W AND 25N66W. A STATIONARY
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 27N52W AND 22N57W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN
49W AND 55W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 24N41W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 25W AND 52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 21N TO 32N BETWEEN
35W AND 44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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