[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE OCT 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N38W 13N38W 9N36W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N38W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 38W AND 42W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
8N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE 25N38W CYCLONIC CENTER.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25N54W 19N56W 13N57W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE ALREADY HAS MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N38W. THE WAVE IS JUST TO THE
WEST OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG
25N51W 22N53W 19N53W. A SEPARATE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N58W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 48W AND
55W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 79W AND THE
COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS OF NICARAGUA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W...TO 10N23W 6N34W AND 7N40W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 7N40W TO 12N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 13N BETWEEN 12W AND 18W POSSIBLY WITH
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 3N TO
10N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.A...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W
22N77W...ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING
THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER EASTERN U.S.A. TROUGH
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N64W 22N77W...ALL OF FLORIDA...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF 24 HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND
DISSIPATED. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF 29N90W 27N90W 25N93W 25N97W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 23N NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST OF 29N90W 27N90W 25N93W 25N97W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N76W...ACROSS FLORIDA ON A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST LINE
THROUGH 29N82W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N89W...TO
COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 23N98W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KVAF...KEMK...
KGHB...KATP...KMIS...AND KDLP. ICAO STATION KHQI IS REPORTING
VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT FALFURRIAS
TEXAS...AND IN SARASOTA FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

ONE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 17N58W...SLIGHTLY OUTSIDE THE AREA OF THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 17N58W CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...AND IT IS MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF 17N EVERYWHERE IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 63W AND 65W. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. SCATTERED STRONG
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 53W AND 58W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N73W IN COLOMBIA TO 10N77W...
ALONG 10N BEYOND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. A CARIBBEAN SEA
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH THAT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 79W AND THE COASTAL WATERS/
COASTAL PLAINS OF NICARAGUA. NUMEROUS STRONG IN LAKE MARACAIBO
IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 5N
TO 7N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. SCATTERED STRONG IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS/THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 77W
AND 80W. SCATTERED STRONG IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF COSTA RICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA...
WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA
AT THIS TIME. EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...AT 06/2045
UTC...THAT WAS ALONG 19N70W IN THE INTERIOR OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AT DIFFERENT SITES ACROSS
THE ISLAND.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME. IT WILL DISSIPATED IN A LONGWAVE
TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT WILL BE ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW...AND LATER EVEN
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25N54W 19N56W 13N57W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE ALREADY HAS MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N38W. THE WAVE IS JUST TO THE
WEST OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG
25N51W 22N53W 19N53W. A SEPARATE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N58W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 48W AND
55W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N38W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
14N TO 32N BETWEEN 25W AND 48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 21N TO 32N BETWEEN 35W
AND 47W.

A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N31W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N76W...ACROSS FLORIDA ON A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST LINE
THROUGH 29N82W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N89W...TO
COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 23N98W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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