[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT OCT 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
17N62W TO 7N63W...MOVING W 20-25 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A
BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE S OF 15N AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 58W-66W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N74W TO 11N79W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR 20
KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER HAITI...E CUBA...AND W OF JAMAICA. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...THE SW
CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA...S OF 12N BETWEEN 74W-83W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA FROM 14N16W TO 10N20W.
THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM 10N20W TO 8N40W TO 9N61W. BESIDES THE
CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 UTC... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N90W TO NE
MEXICO NEAR 25N98W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW
GULF FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 93W-100W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE N OF THE FRONT. 5-10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF N
OF 25N SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM N MEXICO TO S FLORIDA S OF 25N. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO WITH
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MAIN FEATURES ACROSS THE BASIN ARE THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVING
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 17N. DRY AIR AND AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
19N63W. BOTH AREAS HAVE STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WITH
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

EVENING CONVECTION IS NOW DISSIPATING OVER HAITI. A DRY AIRMASS
(SAL) PREVAILS TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 30N54W TO 27N60W TO 27N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N56W. A SMALL 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE E OF THE CENTER FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 33W-40W. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR A NEW COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO S
FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE OTHER COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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