[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS THAT
EXTENDS FROM 16N62W TO 07N63W...MOVING W 25-30 KT. THIS WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
REMAINS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 56W-62W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N74W TO 11N79W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR 20
KT. A DRY AIRMASS (SAL) IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE WHICH
IS LIMITING CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA FROM 17N16W TO 10N20W.
THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM 10N20W TO 07N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION PREVAILS ONLY ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 24W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND
EXTENDING TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF INTO THE SW ATLANTIC OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. A BROAD TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT WAS ANALYZED TO BE FROM 29N91 TO
27N98W AND THEN EXTENDING W INTO MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL TROF IS
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FROM 30N86W TO 22N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG A LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N83W TO
22N97W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING ESE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS ENHANCING CONVECTION REACHING
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MAIN FEATURES ACROSS THE BASIN ARE THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. FOR MORE
INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W
OF 83W. DRY AIR AND SAL IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE BASIN E OF 75W INHIBITING CONVECTION. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 19N62W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS
S OF 12N ENHANCED BY THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH
IS CROSSING PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE
BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...HISPANIOLA...

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND AS A DRY AIRMASS (SAL)
PREVAILS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS S INTO THE W ATLANTIC N OF 30N BETWEEN 55W-70W SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 37N52W
TO 27N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 27N70W TO 27N76W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION PREVAILS WITHIN 95 NM S OF THESE BOUNDARIES. AN UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES N OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CENTER NEAR 25N63W.
THIS FEATURE PAIRED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 28N33W IS
CREATING A DIFFLUENT FLOW ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM 22N-
26N BETWEEN 46W-52W. A SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED NEAR 30N34W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS AT ABOUT 125 NM N OF THE LOW CENTER. OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN
WHILE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN BY SATURDAY REACHING THE
FLORIDA STRAITS BY SUNDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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