[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031725
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD
MOVING WESTWARD 25 TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE
WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W FROM 10N TO 20N.
THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 25 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. THE WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH HAITI AT THIS TIME. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF HAITI...
ACROSS JAMAICA...INTO AND BEYOND COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...IN BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT ARE TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE HAITI CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...CURVING TO 10N18W AND 9N22W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 9N22W TO 6N30W 4N40W AND 4N48W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO
11N BETWEEN 35W AND 42W...AND FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 46W AND
47W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 30W...AND FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 57W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER CENTRAL U.S.A. TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH LOUISIANA AND COASTAL TEXAS...TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITHIN 100
NM TO 130 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IS WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 91W AND 95W...AND IN THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 86W AND 87W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA OF
THE FLORIDA STRAITS/NORTHWESTERN CUBA...THROUGH THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO ALONG
23N/24N. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE AWAY FROM THE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT.

BROAD REMNANT MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
LINGERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM
24 HOURS AGO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 24N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 95W AND THE MEXICO
COAST.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KGVX...KXIH...
KGBK...KCRH AND KGHB AND KIKT WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR
LESS WITH FOG...KVQT...KSPR IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES
OR LESS WITH FOG...KMDJ...KVOA...KMIS...LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN
REPORTED DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS IN SOUTHEASTERN
COASTAL LOUISIANA.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...IN TEXAS...IN THE DEEP SOUTH COASTAL
PLAINS...IN LOUISIANA...IN SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS OF
LOUISIANA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS SURROUND PARTS OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED AROUND THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF THE LAKE DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN SOUTHERN/
COASTAL SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD
CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS...SOME WITH THUNDER...COVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE FROM TALLAHASSEE WESTWARD. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
BEING REPORTED AND/OR HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE LAST FEW
OBSERVATIONS FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG
METROPOLITAN AREA...AND AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 19N64W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF HAITI...ACROSS JAMAICA...INTO AND BEYOND COASTAL
SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 16N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...FROM 17N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...
AND FROM 14N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...IN BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT ARE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE HAITI CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
03/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.33 IN
TRINIDAD...0.30 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...AND 0.19 IN CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N75W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF PANAMA THAT ARE ALONG 79W...BEYOND
WESTERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 4N ALONG THE WESTERN COAST
OF COLOMBIA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO 12N IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 77W AND 84W IN
SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW
CROSSES HISPANIOLA. HAITI CONTINUES TO BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO SOUTHWESTERN
HAITI...INTO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED. CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED
IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MOST OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH WILL REMAIN INTACT FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
THE TROUGH WILL START TO BREAK DOWN WITH TIME. A RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP AND PERSIST ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE 48
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST...WITH A FEW INVERTED TROUGHS
THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700
MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL
SPAN HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W TO 24N70W 26N60W BEYOND 32N56W. THE
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO A 38N64W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE 38N64W CENTER SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 28N60W AND 26N67W. A
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 26N67W TO 26N72W AND 29N79W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W 26N60W 24N70W 25N74W 28N80W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
03/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.30 IN NASSAU IN
THE BAHAMAS.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 34N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. ONE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 32N32W. A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 27N34W. A WEAKENING 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 28N33W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 33N BETWEEN
25W AND 34W...FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 30W AND 43W...AND FROM 21N
TO 32N BETWEEN 45W AND 56W.

A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS BETWEEN THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND THE 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N33W...AND THE 32N53W 26N67W COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net