[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031053
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 56W/57W S OF
15N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W 25-30 KT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE
AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 51W-57W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 70W/71W S OF 20N
ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W NEAR 20
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW
SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 13N17W AND CONTINUES TO 9N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 7N37W 8N45W TO NEAR 8N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 37W-46W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN
23W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER MEXICO BETWEEN TAMPICO AND THE
TEXAS BORDER ACROSS THE GULF INTO THE SW ATLC OVER THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE NW
GULF SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE GULF
WATERS LATER THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA N OF 27N W OF 92W AND ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE. SOME REMNANT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE GULF
FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 87W-90W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFF THE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING AND EXTEND FROM NEAR MOBILE BAY
ALABAMA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS THIS EVENING THEN FROM NAPLES
FLORIDA TO NW COAST OF MEXICO SAT WHERE THE W PORTION OF THE
FRONT WILL STALL THEN BEGIN TO LIFT N AS WARM FRONT SAT NIGHT
INTO S TEXAS AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS E ACROSS THE FAR
NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 80W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN
UPPER LOW JUST NE OF LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N61W ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN TO A SECOND UPPER LOW
NEAR 14N79W CONTINUING TO CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR THE COSTA RICA/
NICARAGUA BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 59W-68W INCLUDING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...BARBADOS...TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 10N BETWEEN
COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N FROM OVER COLOMBIA TO OVER PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...AND SE NICARAGUA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY AND ACROSS THE W
CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MONRING. THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE
CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE ISLAND E FLOW ALOFT. TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH EARLY SAT INCREASING THE
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG 23N72W TO 27N56W. A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S INTO THE W ATLC N OF 27N BETWEEN 60W-80W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THE ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N55W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 28N61W TO 26N68W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO 27N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND
TROUGH E OF 74W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC SUPPORTING A
WEAKENING 1018 MB LOW NEAR 28N33W. THE UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN
THESE UPPER TROUGHS IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM 22N38W TO
29N52W WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR
24N51W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND EXTEND FROM NEAR
31N56W ALONG 26N67W TO 27N74W TODAY THEN MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW PORTION ON SAT
REACHING FROM NEAR 31N66W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MON MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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