[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041056
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
17N64W TO 6N65W...MOVING W 20-25 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A
BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE S OF 15N AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN
58W-68W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 21N78W TO 11N79W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR 20
KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA...THE SW
CARIBBEAN...AND PANAMA...S OF 12N BETWEEN 74W-81W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA FROM 13N17W TO 9N20W TO
8N26W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM 8N26W TO 9N40W TO 8N61W. BESIDES THE
CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 33W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE N FLORIDA NEAR
30N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 23N98W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW
GULF AND NE MEXICO FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 96W-99W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE
FRONT. 5-10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N
SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM N
MEXICO TO S FLORIDA S OF 25N. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO WITH
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MAIN FEATURES ACROSS THE BASIN ARE THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVING
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 17N. DRY AIR AND AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
19N63W. BOTH AREAS HAVE STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WITH
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. A DRY AIRMASS (SAL) PREVAILS
OVER THE ISLAND. EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EVENING SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 31N51W TO 26N60W TO 27N71W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N59W. A SMALL 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE E OF THE CENTER FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 33W-40W. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR A NEW COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO S
FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE OTHER COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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