[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...A GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A GALE WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AT 25/1800 UTC OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. THESE
WINDS WILL EXPAND OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND WITHIN 60
NM ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FRONT BY 26/0000 UTC AND BE BELOW GALE
FORCE BY EARLY WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 14 FT DURING
THIS GALE EVENT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...A GALE WARNING FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A GALE WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT FOR THE FAR NW ATLC AT 26/1200
UTC. THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 31N. THESE
WINDS WILL SHIFT NE RAPIDLY OUT OF THE AREA. SEAS WILL BUILD UP
TO 12 FT DURING THIS GALE EVENT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N14W TO 8N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 8N26W 9N36W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N55W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH E OF 16W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA WITHIN 200 NM OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 19W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS SWEEPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY
TO A NEWLY DEVELOPED 1012 MB LOW NEAR 27N87W CONTINUING ALONG
22N94W THEN S INTO MEXICO NEAR COATZACOALCOS THEN CONTINUES AS A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER MEXICO. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE FRONT N OF
25N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM E
OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 91W AND 94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE
FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE IS
BUILDING SE OVER THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A
SERIES OF HIGHS INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF THE
FRONT LEAVING THE SE GULF UNDER FAIR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE SE EXITING THE GULF ON WED AS THE LOW MOVES
RAPIDLY MOVES NE OUT OF THE GULF TONIGHT AND OFF THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA BY EARLY WED. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN FROM THE W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA NEAR
22N76W COVERING THE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE E/CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WHERE DIFFLUENT FLOW COULD
GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY N OF 19N W OF 80W. THE
MONSOON TROUGH IS ANOTHER EXCEPTION. IT EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA
NEAR 10N74W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER INTO THE E
PACIFIC NEAR 11N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH W OF 79W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY WED WITH STRONG N WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS IN ITS WAKE.

HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BETWEEN BAHAMAS AND CUBA IS GIVING THE
ISLANDS N FLOW ALOFT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
COVERING THE AREA. THIS IS KEEPING SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE THE FRONT
REACHES THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AT THE END OF THE WEEK INCREASING
MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA NEAR
22N76W COVERS THE W ATLC AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER
FLORIDA AND THE FAR W ATLC. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER THE E
CONUS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
PRECEDING IT EXTENDING FROM OVER NE FLORIDA NE ACROSS
JACKSONVILLE TO BEYOND 32N79W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150/180 NM E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH ENHANCED BY THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC THAT EXTENDS S OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN IS
SUPPORTING A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N35W
ALONG 27N45W 20N48W TO 17N52W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-27N BETWEEN 42W-49W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND A
SECOND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 32N27W
TO OVER AFRICA NEAR CENTRAL WESTERN SAHARA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT E AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE THE W ATLC
TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N68W TO CENTRAL CUBA EARLY
THU AND JUST E OF BERMUDA TO E CUBA BY FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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