[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...A GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF OF MEXICO ON
26/0000 UTC. FORECAST COLD FRONT IS FROM 29N83W TO 18.5N93W.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST S OF 20N W OF 95W...AND WITHIN 60
NM W OF FRONT BETWEEN 23N TO 27N. WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE
BY 26/1200 UTC. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 14 FT DURING THIS GALE
EVENT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...A GALE WARNING FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A GALE WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT FOR THE FAR NW ATLC AT 26/1200
UTC. THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 30N E OF FRONT TO 77W. THESE WINDS WILL
SHIFT NE RAPIDLY OUT OF THE AREA BY 26/1800 UTC. SEAS WILL BUILD
UP TO 11 FT DURING THIS GALE EVENT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 8N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
6N25W TO 8N47W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 13W-19W...FROM 5N-10N
BETWEEN 23W-34W...AND FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 36W-45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 4N-
8N BETWEEN 51W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM DAYTONA FLORIDA AT
29N81W TO A 1010 MB LOW OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AT 26N85W TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 21N93W TO S MEXICO AT 17N93W. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AT 20N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF FROM 26N-31N
BETWEEN 80W-86W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO START
SHORTLY ON 26/0000 UTC NW OF FRONT. SEE ABOVE. FAIR WEATHER IS
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT OVER TEXAS AND AND THE TEXAS COAST. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS AND N MEXICO
WITH AXIS ALONG 98W. SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF
SUPPORTING THE FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER SE TEXAS AND THE
NW GULF. MORE SUBSIDENCE IS OVER CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
HAS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY OVER THE FRONT. EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO W CUBA ON 26/1200 UTC
WITH CONVECTION. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SE EXITING THE GULF
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...AIRMASS SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY BUILT OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
PANAMA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N W OF 80W. 15-
25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN E OF 77W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E CUBA NEAR 20N74W
WITHG STRONG SUBSIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF NICARAGUA. EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT IN 24 HOURS TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO CENTRAL
HONDURAS WITH CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA MOVING W WITH
THE TRADEWINDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ALOFT OVER THE ISLAND
SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT MORE PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N79W
TO DAYTONA FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
N OF 28N W OF 77W. A LARGE 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 38N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 28N45W TO 18N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 240 NM E OF THROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N48W ENHANCING SHOWERS. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE W ATLANTIC
WITH CONVECTION AND A BRIEF GALE PERIOD. SEE ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA

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